Lukas Injury Stats Conclusion

Staaden asks the question does Lukas injure horses, and finds in the affirmative, but, Lukas compared to others is average. If, as I have, you look closely at those exercise logs and races for the year 1988 in Staaden's book, and then extrapolate horses that probably were injured or horses that suffered career enders, those findings pretty much support Staaden's conclusions. Lukas injures horses, but, about at the same rate as most.

And thus, if a 50% career ending injury rate per year for 3 year old and up(and that's likely about what it was in 1988) would be an acceptable risk to you, Lukas or his like are your trainers. On the other hand if this seems a bit more high stakes poker than your wallet supports, or your conscience allows, then find or do something else. You can land on the Advance Chess Boards, but you better be able to play.

Please note that identification of the Lukas injury rate is in a sense other than a condemnation of the man. It is more a condemnation of a system and a man, Lukas, too small minded to rise above it. The man had this game by the tail. He might have taken the tack that he would train to avoid injury. Instead, like most of them he plays the numbers game, and both cares for his horses and views them expendable for money and fame, a contradiction some might find hard to stomach.

But, before RR gets too snooty with Lukas, there is the question whether there is any training system that avoids injury. What was Preston Burch's record in this sense, or T.J. Smith, winner of Sydney (Aus) training premiership 33 years in a row? T.J. is the hardest trainer I came across and is like Lukas accused of breaking down horses. Or, for that matter what is RR's own record in this regard? I've had somewhere between 30 and 40 races. Any breakdowns?

I'll get to all this eventually. But, I want to do a few more posts on Mandella and Lukas and their injury rate. I want to try to be accurate, and there's still a
little more work to be done. (Please note I've included some caveats on yesterday's stats, below.)

1/26/07: Day 3: Light qualified day 3 riderless pasture work due to conditions. Some bursts. Weather is a bummer.
1/27/07: Day 1: Rest. Wind chills in the zeros and solid hard ground and a busy schedule provide the excuse.
1/28/07: Another Day 3 attempt: 25 degrees but ground hard as a rock mixed with frozen ice and snow. Limited again to pasture romp. Horses energetic but refuse to extend on the ground. Did get one little speed burst, so, a day three. Just trying to maintain something here. The forecast is a bummer. Below qualifications or caveats on accuracy of Lukas stats posted yesterday:

1. Only searching Equibase at $8/horse would give us completely accurate answers as to number of races/year.
2. The stats are for 12 months but Staaden only gives 8-9 months info. Rest is educated guess work.
3. No racing in Sept. in CA may also skewer things slightly.
4. Assumptions never in the record were made: a 10 month racing season, and also if a horse is off for a lengthy period in middle of racing season, it's due to injury.
5. The year was 1988. Horses raced as many times as they survived. Thus the races per year stats reflect injury rather than just trainers racing light.