Conventional Training And The Numbers Game
What is the numbers game as it applies to training race horses? Here's one Malcom Johnson, ex-stable jockey for legendary Australian trainer T.J. Smith, who won the Sydney training premiership 33 years in a row. Says Malcom about Tommy Smith and the numbers game:
"...Tommy can afford to do it. Tommy'll either make them or break them. If they can stand his training methods, they are the fittest horses on a racecourse. Human hands can't get 'em any fitter. But by the same token, if they don't make the racecourse, they go out to the paddock that afternoon. Tommy will have something in its box to take its place, so he can afford to do it. Young trainers can't afford to adopt that policy because if they do break 'em down, where are they going to get another one from? So it's a no-win situation for them. They've got to try to cuddle, and nurse, and look after them because it's their livelihood. They've got to try and hold them together whereas Tommy says, "Well, I want to get them fit and if it breaks down, well, I've got the numbers."
Huh? Do we read correctly? "...if it breaks down, well, I've got the numbers". Please note Malcom Johnson talks here instead of the deceased T.J. Smith, possessed in his time of the best record for a trainer ever. Yet, Mr. Johnson's statement exemplifies an approach to training injuries that might make our new auction buyers, Mr. or Mrs. Joe Schmo, a little nervous despite T.J.'s record. One might visualize the scene of these folks just having bid a bit too far into their life savings to acquire the newly minted two year old.
"You are going to do what with my horse at $2000/mo?" "That is correct ma'am. We'll send them to the breakers for some basic lessons, bring the whole 50 horse string of T.J.'s two year old crop in here to Tulloch Lodge (next to Randwick Racecourse), put 'em through T.J.'s program, and in 45 days the one's that survive (without injury) will be ready to race. T.J. really is a good trainer. Just look at his record"
"Your saying that T.J. will put 'em through a 45 day prep and the one's that survive race. What happens if my horse fails to survive?" " Well, ma'am, how's his breeding?"
And so we have an answer. Or we have "answers" to my questions beginning at Ak Sar Ben and later as an owner and trainer, how do these public trainers stay in business while they injure everything in their shedrows? Its quite a bit easier to make a mistake with a horse when you have ten others waiting in the wings. For reasons that I'm still trying to figure, there is always another.
Today's Training:
We've rested since we did a nice breeze Friday and I reported that the horse pulled up lame on the right front. I decided due to lack of symptoms--bruised hoof. KH left an interesting comment on using infrared hand helds to check this last post. Saturday and Sunday the horse walked without a limp but it was too wet to trot him. This morning rushing to the office very early during feeding the horse was severly limping about 7 on a scale of 10--no heat, swelling or pain discernable. This has got to be a developing abscess, and, I've already informed our abscess expert Mr. Nob. Will give a report on treatment next post.
"...Tommy can afford to do it. Tommy'll either make them or break them. If they can stand his training methods, they are the fittest horses on a racecourse. Human hands can't get 'em any fitter. But by the same token, if they don't make the racecourse, they go out to the paddock that afternoon. Tommy will have something in its box to take its place, so he can afford to do it. Young trainers can't afford to adopt that policy because if they do break 'em down, where are they going to get another one from? So it's a no-win situation for them. They've got to try to cuddle, and nurse, and look after them because it's their livelihood. They've got to try and hold them together whereas Tommy says, "Well, I want to get them fit and if it breaks down, well, I've got the numbers."
Huh? Do we read correctly? "...if it breaks down, well, I've got the numbers". Please note Malcom Johnson talks here instead of the deceased T.J. Smith, possessed in his time of the best record for a trainer ever. Yet, Mr. Johnson's statement exemplifies an approach to training injuries that might make our new auction buyers, Mr. or Mrs. Joe Schmo, a little nervous despite T.J.'s record. One might visualize the scene of these folks just having bid a bit too far into their life savings to acquire the newly minted two year old.
"You are going to do what with my horse at $2000/mo?" "That is correct ma'am. We'll send them to the breakers for some basic lessons, bring the whole 50 horse string of T.J.'s two year old crop in here to Tulloch Lodge (next to Randwick Racecourse), put 'em through T.J.'s program, and in 45 days the one's that survive (without injury) will be ready to race. T.J. really is a good trainer. Just look at his record"
"Your saying that T.J. will put 'em through a 45 day prep and the one's that survive race. What happens if my horse fails to survive?" " Well, ma'am, how's his breeding?"
And so we have an answer. Or we have "answers" to my questions beginning at Ak Sar Ben and later as an owner and trainer, how do these public trainers stay in business while they injure everything in their shedrows? Its quite a bit easier to make a mistake with a horse when you have ten others waiting in the wings. For reasons that I'm still trying to figure, there is always another.
Today's Training:
We've rested since we did a nice breeze Friday and I reported that the horse pulled up lame on the right front. I decided due to lack of symptoms--bruised hoof. KH left an interesting comment on using infrared hand helds to check this last post. Saturday and Sunday the horse walked without a limp but it was too wet to trot him. This morning rushing to the office very early during feeding the horse was severly limping about 7 on a scale of 10--no heat, swelling or pain discernable. This has got to be a developing abscess, and, I've already informed our abscess expert Mr. Nob. Will give a report on treatment next post.
posted by rather rapid at
12:57 AM
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2 Comments:
I see your point Rapid but is there some tax benefit or write off that makes people with a lot of money appear to act foolishly. There has to be a reason for spending $900K for a horse who has a 50/50 chance of earniing $32k for winning a MSW at Keeneland. What say you?
I say, John, hello, I'll get out my slide rule. The tax breaks never add up to the cost, UNLESS you can show the IRS you're doing the work, in which case you get a dollar for dollar discount on gross income; indeed welcome. But, you pose the interesting question of why, other than hope springs eternal. Too broad for a comment, but, i often wonder in ur example how often the full $900,000 really changes hands, or did they just trade horses?
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