Today's Derby Action
With three Derby prep races on the card today I'll give my little comments for what they are worth. As everyone else, I enjoy the racing action, but I also follow the training and preparation since that is my interest. Let's say that we continue to keep an eye on the competition.
Just yesterday I logged onto the DRF past performance of last year's Derby entrants, and in detail noted the several months pre-race workouts of each contender. I've noted previously on the blog that I'm seeing a different pattern this year than last year and in other previous years in that horses "seemed" to be breezing more frequently. My look yesterday at last year's past performances going into the Derby provided a little more fodder.
Let's first observe what I consider highly regrettable, which is the lack of information published on top horses in training. I'm talking here about breezes and gallops primarily including distance and times. It's other than that this information is unavailable. In fact, publications like Thoroughbred Times have given us breezing information on most of the top Derby contenders.
However, the information the Times provides is inconsistent and ceases at the whim of whoever is responsible for the page. E.g. Stormello's work before the Fountain of Youth is well documented, but, nothing since. Teuflesberg, a major contender, gets a write up but nothing about what he's been doing on the track. And, the Blood Horse is much the same. The point is that since we get only "some" information instead of "all", for anyone interested in the training we're left to piecing it together and guessing about what's omitted. Because of this, as an example, I'm without any idea on the preparation of Teuflesberg since the Southwest stakes. I could pay for DRF pps, but, I'll decline that charge at the moment.
So, where are we today? I just read Carl Nafzger's Blood Horse Transcript. Nothing about the training of Street Sense. Carl seems a smart guy and highly competent as most of the top conventional trainers, but, he is a conventional. This is well documented in his book.
Tampa Bay: Street Sense has received unconventional preparation. The only info directly available is his breezing. But, since I know what Nafzger does from "Traits of a Winner" I can guarantee a lot of appropriate two mile galloping along with the frequent breezing. To date, it appears, Nafzger has done a bang up job. He additionally, imo, has a horse that's a step above the rest in talent. Those being noted, this is a first race after a long layoff. I disbelieve they will really be pressing the horse today. Todd Pletcher will be trying to win this race imo partly to keep his streak alive, but, mostly because the horse Any Given Saturday needs to step up. I believe Pletcher will win it today barring the emergence of an unbelievable talent in Street Sense. The latter is possible, but imo doubtful this would appear just today.
The Rebel: I'm throwing out Teuflesberg due to my prejudice against female trainers (as trainers). Jamie Sanders' spiel right now is the typical you hear from female coaches before their athletes compete. Ms. Sanders says her horse is really into things mentally. n That's great Ms. Sanders, but, what about the physical preparation. As per usual, no word on this from Ms. Sanders. It's a matter of misguided priorities. Since reports on Teuflesberg track works are zilch, that's probably where it's at for this horse, so today, suspect we'll see the Lukas horse step up and win.
San Felipe: My infor too incomplete to hazard a guess. I've seen Cobalt Blue galloping. Something to dislike a little there. But, O'Neil is a great trainer. I go with Baffert's horse here. Baffert steps up.
Just yesterday I logged onto the DRF past performance of last year's Derby entrants, and in detail noted the several months pre-race workouts of each contender. I've noted previously on the blog that I'm seeing a different pattern this year than last year and in other previous years in that horses "seemed" to be breezing more frequently. My look yesterday at last year's past performances going into the Derby provided a little more fodder.
Let's first observe what I consider highly regrettable, which is the lack of information published on top horses in training. I'm talking here about breezes and gallops primarily including distance and times. It's other than that this information is unavailable. In fact, publications like Thoroughbred Times have given us breezing information on most of the top Derby contenders.
However, the information the Times provides is inconsistent and ceases at the whim of whoever is responsible for the page. E.g. Stormello's work before the Fountain of Youth is well documented, but, nothing since. Teuflesberg, a major contender, gets a write up but nothing about what he's been doing on the track. And, the Blood Horse is much the same. The point is that since we get only "some" information instead of "all", for anyone interested in the training we're left to piecing it together and guessing about what's omitted. Because of this, as an example, I'm without any idea on the preparation of Teuflesberg since the Southwest stakes. I could pay for DRF pps, but, I'll decline that charge at the moment.
So, where are we today? I just read Carl Nafzger's Blood Horse Transcript. Nothing about the training of Street Sense. Carl seems a smart guy and highly competent as most of the top conventional trainers, but, he is a conventional. This is well documented in his book.
Tampa Bay: Street Sense has received unconventional preparation. The only info directly available is his breezing. But, since I know what Nafzger does from "Traits of a Winner" I can guarantee a lot of appropriate two mile galloping along with the frequent breezing. To date, it appears, Nafzger has done a bang up job. He additionally, imo, has a horse that's a step above the rest in talent. Those being noted, this is a first race after a long layoff. I disbelieve they will really be pressing the horse today. Todd Pletcher will be trying to win this race imo partly to keep his streak alive, but, mostly because the horse Any Given Saturday needs to step up. I believe Pletcher will win it today barring the emergence of an unbelievable talent in Street Sense. The latter is possible, but imo doubtful this would appear just today.
The Rebel: I'm throwing out Teuflesberg due to my prejudice against female trainers (as trainers). Jamie Sanders' spiel right now is the typical you hear from female coaches before their athletes compete. Ms. Sanders says her horse is really into things mentally. n That's great Ms. Sanders, but, what about the physical preparation. As per usual, no word on this from Ms. Sanders. It's a matter of misguided priorities. Since reports on Teuflesberg track works are zilch, that's probably where it's at for this horse, so today, suspect we'll see the Lukas horse step up and win.
San Felipe: My infor too incomplete to hazard a guess. I've seen Cobalt Blue galloping. Something to dislike a little there. But, O'Neil is a great trainer. I go with Baffert's horse here. Baffert steps up.
Today's training:
3/15/07 Day 2: 10-15 min pasture romping on his own while I was retrieving a fence jumper. Unknown how hard he worked.
3/16/07: Off
3/17/07: Day 3 (sort off): This was to be a fast day under Burch training. Stepping it up a little today was planned. Horse was put in the Astride paddock with another horse, and got in a little work, some of it fast, but then jumped the fence again. Decided to call it there. We'll repeat tomorrow. Tack work: Nob walked him under tack for 6 to 7 minutes. Reported we seem to have the turning thing, and stopping and starting down.
3/15/07 Day 2: 10-15 min pasture romping on his own while I was retrieving a fence jumper. Unknown how hard he worked.
3/16/07: Off
3/17/07: Day 3 (sort off): This was to be a fast day under Burch training. Stepping it up a little today was planned. Horse was put in the Astride paddock with another horse, and got in a little work, some of it fast, but then jumped the fence again. Decided to call it there. We'll repeat tomorrow. Tack work: Nob walked him under tack for 6 to 7 minutes. Reported we seem to have the turning thing, and stopping and starting down.
posted by rather rapid at
1:19 PM
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3 Comments:
Off the 'net:
.... Flying First Class gained a narrow lead on the second turn before tiring to finish 13 lengths behind Curlin.
Lukas blamed himself for the loss, saying he misjudged the fitness level of Flying First Class and dropped the colt’s last scheduled work.
Lukas said he believed Flying First Class was coming too fast too soon.
“Big mistake,” Lukas said. “I did a very poor job, but it’s correctable.”
Lukas said Flying First Class came out of the race well, just “very tired.”
“I’ve got to go back and put some bottom on him,” Lukas said. “He’s a quality horse. I’m not wrong on the horse. I’m just wrong on how I handled him.”
Would be interesting to have a mole's eye view of what Lukas plans on doing....
KH
http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbTopLeadersByTrackDisplay.cfm?TRK=PHA&CY=USA&STAT=T
txs for posting this KH! unable to get that equibase thread. quite funny from DW ("we don't work horses) Lukas. least he's honest. most interesting derby developing here~!
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