Derby Musings

Some nice training of the Santa Anita Derby horses, at least judging from the published works. Adequate distance for the most part, and logically spaced. Breezing and works tell only part of the story. We only have to look at the Pletcher barn to see horses breezing slow who race well. Pletcher is doing a lot more than the breezes, and I've offered a reward on the Pedigree Forum for anyone who'll tell me what it is. Some of the horses in the other Derby preps this weekend, as usual based on the training of the horse up to the race, you ponder what is this trainer thinking?

These races require a first class handicapping effort to sort anything out, and what follows is only my superficial glance. No Biz seems like a no brainer in the Wood. Nice job by Barclay. Uniformed fans will talk about the blinkers, but with No Biz its the training. This horse will be in condition tomorrow, and, barring injury I'll be amazed at anything other than a strong performance. Barclay seems recently to have developed the Carl Nafzger disease. A couple nice works by Summer Doldroms, but, since I'm convinced that Richard Violette is one of those training imbeciles, throw him out. More crow coming in the unlikely event I'm wrong.

Cobalt Blue is one of my personal Derby favorites--raw talent and a top trainer. One work in 22 days fails to cut it for me. Cobalt will struggle but may prevail on sheer talent against a field that contains a lot of idiot trainers. Lukas's horse is in the Wood, but, look past performances of that horse to see an example.

Santa Anita Derby I'd avoid putting my money down--the "too many contenders" rule. I like Bwana Bull and it looks on the surface like a decent training job--the only horse that trained for distance. Liquidity seems the obvious choice based on works and comments. I think these two will be outfooted down the lane by King of the Roxy. Best trainer, most talented horse wins this race. King of the Roxy is out of a Bold Forbes mare. I have personal experience that these Bold Forbes types are spitfires.