The 2007 Kentucky Derby
Wow what a field! With regards to those who somehow see mediocrity here, I'm unable to recall a more competitive group of prospects. How can you bet this race where you have fifteen horses that conceivably could win? Neverthless, I'll try to sort through this bunch after watching the training very carefully and hoping we'd learn something for next year. Let's note also that I've never seen a better more consistent training job from more trainers. Times are a changing, and I believe the lack of injuries this year indicates that. Here we go:
1. Teuflesberg: my personal favorite. Hey, this is us! An affordable, carefully selected yearling with some breeding. Modest connections and an owner/trainer who also rides the horse. Ms. Jamie Thomas has gotten old and fat and she rides now like a sack of potatoes similar to our own exercise boy, Mr. Nob, but, she's definitely the blond that was breezing Zito's horses at the KY Horse Center when we were there in '98. Teuflesberg (Der Teufel--German for Devil) looked great breezing last Saturday, BUT, then it's the woman training thing again. Where is Ms. Sanders Monday when she should be out galloping her horse? She's in NY City. How can this be? It's Zito training, and how many horses does he have here. Throw out Teuflesberg.
2. Hard Spun: Ditto here. A trainer who rides his horse. Big advantage to that. But this one weighs 180 lbs and wears heavy waist to ankle chaps at the gallop. What's with the chaps Larry? Might you weigh enough without the 5 lbs. of chaps? I'm unable to think a man so vapid in detail will have his horse ready for the Derby. We'll post the grossly overweight Nob's near weightless riding wardrobe in contrast at a later date. Throw him out.
3. Throw out any horse trained by Doug O'Neil. Soft trainer over his head with this bunch.
4. Dominican. Same deal. Questionable trainer.
5. No Biz: From here down I give every horse at least an adequate for the training job. Two things though about No Biz: a) Barclay Tagg is a conventional and beats only conventionals. He will lose to this group, and 2) Even were the horse sufficiently fit, I've been unimpressed by his talent. Throw him out
6. Tiago: I still feel sorry for poor Giacomo in the Breeder's Cup. Nice training till 6 days before the Classic, and then not one single gallop between the last breeze and the race. Try sitting in a closet for a week and go out and run an 880 to get a feel for what Shireff's horses have to overcome. Nice training by Shireff as one of two trainers who understand the Derby distance is more than 5f. But, fear the Giacomo gallop pattern from last breeze to race. Throw him out.
7. Curlin and Zanjero: Asmussen I've identified as one of the new "harder" trainers. He conditions his horses. And yet there's something about this guy that rubs me the wrong way which just intuitively will doom these horses. Throw throw them out.
8. Circular Quay, Cowtown Cat--insufficient talent. These types require rigorous preps. What was Pletcher thinking? Throw them out.
9. Any Given Saturday or any horse trained by Pletcher: a threat.
10. Scat Daddy: If this horse were in my Derby I'd be worried. Scat flashed exceptional talent and conditioning in Florida. People tell me that Pletcher trains soft. Don't believe it. Your eyes will tell you otherwise, at least through the Derby preps. There are a few warning signs since the Florida Derby including the bar shoes. And yet, watching the Pletcher horses this year, everyone of them running gate to wire, this exceptional horse should be right there.
12. Street Sense: Picture Nafzger watching the stretch run on Saturday as reality flashes before his eyes. What a training job! Weekly breezing or racing since January. Two minute gallops, two mile gallops, everything seeingly done to near perfection but Nafzger's worst nightmare has come true. Street Sense fades near the wire due to lack of racing fitness, done in by a questionable campaign and two preps were the only running was the last 3f. All comes to naught as a certain liver chestnut storms to the lead at the 1/4 and holds them off at the wire.
13. Stormello: Nice piece on Stormello's groom today. Rubin somebody who confided how fat Stormello was at the Breeder's Cup compared to now. He implied that Currin was too soft prior to the Cup and the Fl. Derby. Currin let up on the training. I doubt he did that again, and suspect he'll have his competitive horse fast and sharp. While I might have preferred Currin condition the speed to just go on instead of trying to change the style before the Derby, I look for the best jock, Desormeaux, to just take off at the quarter pole and outfoot and outcompete Scat Daddy and Street Sense to the win. And, would I look good if it turns out just that way.
1. Teuflesberg: my personal favorite. Hey, this is us! An affordable, carefully selected yearling with some breeding. Modest connections and an owner/trainer who also rides the horse. Ms. Jamie Thomas has gotten old and fat and she rides now like a sack of potatoes similar to our own exercise boy, Mr. Nob, but, she's definitely the blond that was breezing Zito's horses at the KY Horse Center when we were there in '98. Teuflesberg (Der Teufel--German for Devil) looked great breezing last Saturday, BUT, then it's the woman training thing again. Where is Ms. Sanders Monday when she should be out galloping her horse? She's in NY City. How can this be? It's Zito training, and how many horses does he have here. Throw out Teuflesberg.
2. Hard Spun: Ditto here. A trainer who rides his horse. Big advantage to that. But this one weighs 180 lbs and wears heavy waist to ankle chaps at the gallop. What's with the chaps Larry? Might you weigh enough without the 5 lbs. of chaps? I'm unable to think a man so vapid in detail will have his horse ready for the Derby. We'll post the grossly overweight Nob's near weightless riding wardrobe in contrast at a later date. Throw him out.
3. Throw out any horse trained by Doug O'Neil. Soft trainer over his head with this bunch.
4. Dominican. Same deal. Questionable trainer.
5. No Biz: From here down I give every horse at least an adequate for the training job. Two things though about No Biz: a) Barclay Tagg is a conventional and beats only conventionals. He will lose to this group, and 2) Even were the horse sufficiently fit, I've been unimpressed by his talent. Throw him out
6. Tiago: I still feel sorry for poor Giacomo in the Breeder's Cup. Nice training till 6 days before the Classic, and then not one single gallop between the last breeze and the race. Try sitting in a closet for a week and go out and run an 880 to get a feel for what Shireff's horses have to overcome. Nice training by Shireff as one of two trainers who understand the Derby distance is more than 5f. But, fear the Giacomo gallop pattern from last breeze to race. Throw him out.
7. Curlin and Zanjero: Asmussen I've identified as one of the new "harder" trainers. He conditions his horses. And yet there's something about this guy that rubs me the wrong way which just intuitively will doom these horses. Throw throw them out.
8. Circular Quay, Cowtown Cat--insufficient talent. These types require rigorous preps. What was Pletcher thinking? Throw them out.
9. Any Given Saturday or any horse trained by Pletcher: a threat.
10. Scat Daddy: If this horse were in my Derby I'd be worried. Scat flashed exceptional talent and conditioning in Florida. People tell me that Pletcher trains soft. Don't believe it. Your eyes will tell you otherwise, at least through the Derby preps. There are a few warning signs since the Florida Derby including the bar shoes. And yet, watching the Pletcher horses this year, everyone of them running gate to wire, this exceptional horse should be right there.
12. Street Sense: Picture Nafzger watching the stretch run on Saturday as reality flashes before his eyes. What a training job! Weekly breezing or racing since January. Two minute gallops, two mile gallops, everything seeingly done to near perfection but Nafzger's worst nightmare has come true. Street Sense fades near the wire due to lack of racing fitness, done in by a questionable campaign and two preps were the only running was the last 3f. All comes to naught as a certain liver chestnut storms to the lead at the 1/4 and holds them off at the wire.
13. Stormello: Nice piece on Stormello's groom today. Rubin somebody who confided how fat Stormello was at the Breeder's Cup compared to now. He implied that Currin was too soft prior to the Cup and the Fl. Derby. Currin let up on the training. I doubt he did that again, and suspect he'll have his competitive horse fast and sharp. While I might have preferred Currin condition the speed to just go on instead of trying to change the style before the Derby, I look for the best jock, Desormeaux, to just take off at the quarter pole and outfoot and outcompete Scat Daddy and Street Sense to the win. And, would I look good if it turns out just that way.
posted by rather rapid at
12:25 AM
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5 Comments:
At the Daily Racing Form online, under the Clockers Report, they have the daily activity of the horses prepping. Telling exactly how far the trained and what they did.
No way! I LOVE Hard Spun. Larry Jones was known before as a "filly trainer". This is the best colt he has ever had. He rides his fillies too! I also love Curlin. I see Steve Asmussen all the time when I go to Sam Houston Racetrack. He always has competitive horses. LOLOL!!! I do think Street Sense is a huge threat.
LyndaP
Lynda, I'm starting to come around to ur way of thinking. I'm working on this next post.
Txs anonymous. i'm checking to see how much that info costs!
found the DRF clocker comments. it's free. txs!
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