How To Decipher Needed Speed?

It's really a complex question, and it has yet to be tested. What do we get in terms of bone remodeling at various speeds? If I were testing I'd have to answer a couple of questions. First, looking at each of the fractions separately:

:15s :14s :13s :12s :11s :10 and change

Last post I noted from the rider's position there's an obvious increase in hoof impact as speeds increase through these fractions. Fastest I've gone is :12s, and so I'm unable to comment on the feel on board as speeds increase to :11s and :10s, but will presume there's continues to be an increase in force but that it's probably smaller as the speed increases faster than :12.

I say that the increases in impact faster than :12s would be a lesser percentage increase thant e.g. the 20% increase between :13s and 12s because the impact that you feel on board in :12s is very dramatic to the point its hard for me to visualize that the impact could physically be much harder than it is going :12s. A little maybe, but not a lot. Just couldn't be without the horse's legs flying apart. Just as a wild guess I'd suppose a horse doing :10 and change might be undergoing an impact of 13,200 lbs./sq. inch.

The next question is whether the load increase on the cannon as you go through these fractions causes a simultaneous and equal reaction in bone tissue in terms of remodeling. Does the bone remodel more in terms of quantity and quality doing :13s on up to :10s? Conversely, just because the load per square inch is greater do we necessarily get an equivalent increase in remodeling? Since we're without studies, again, guesswork.

My thought process goes something like this:

:15s--7500lbs./sq.inch--bone grows thicker and denser

:14s--8800lbs/sq.inch--same reaction--bone is growing thicker and denser

:13s--9600lbs/sq.inch--denser, but, I'd start to suspect a lesser % increase in terms of thickness. At this speed I might guess the bone has reached about 88% of its maximum thickness.

:12s--12000lbs/sq.inch--at this point I'd guess that both bone density and size are reaching optimum levels in terms of what the bone is capable. Can we think 92-93% maximum bone density is reached in :12s, with increase in bone size maybe to 95% of what the bone is capable.

:11s and 10s--again I'm thinking lesser % increases in loading with only slight increases in density and size.

While I'm positive the numbers above if tested would be inaccurate, the analysis remains regardless of what the actual numbers are. And so, if you look closely at these assumptions, which hopefully are close to being valid, it's fairly easy to extrapolate how fast we need to go to get sufficient fracture resistance for that 1.25 mile race 1st Sat. in May. I'll give that speed next post.

Training: Every time I get my hopes up that we can begin serious training another deep freeze blows in. That happened yesterday down to 8 degrees, and we were off after two successive days of being able to get in some work. If the weather pattern stays this active--we've got 4 precipitation events scheduled in the next 15 days--we just are unable to train here. We can maintain a modicum of fitness, but serious race training, unable. I'm gaging this and will post on the weather problem and my solution.