Belmont I

Belmont stacks up as an interesting race. A field of decent horses as noted in the many comments.

Having failed to follow these three year olds closely, I'll merely take a stab at some handicapping based on perceived physical condition, as surely, in a 1.5 mile race conditioning should be a significant factor. And, per usual, we need consider whether talented but lesser trained colts might overcome questionable handling as in the case of First Dude, Icebox, Fly Down, and Stately Victor.

My effort of the moment involves identifying the horses with superior conditioning as shown in the PPs. This year we're without Tim Ritcheys or Nafzgers or even S. Asmussens. These are all conventional trainers including several of the soft training east coast type!

Thus:

1. First eliminate horses whose last published work ocurred before May 30. The assumption here--for minimal conditioning the breeze needs to be 7 days on in. If the last speed work is more than 7 days out the horse should be fairly severely compromised in a race of this length, and a little speed work down the lane in its slow galloping will have little effect--or so the thinking goes!

Thus throw out: Dave In Dixie although you have to fear Sadler. This horse was entered as a lark probably at the instruction of the owner. Uptowncharleybrown. McGlaughlin is one of those east coast trainers referred to. I've noted in the past there's a little more to him than meets the eye in the PPs, but, very little more. Again, probably just an owner throw in. Ice Box--a talented colt with an idiot for a trainer, but, we shall see. I consider it an injustice to horse racing whenever Zito wins a major race for I know him and his deficiencies and stupidity by personal close up observation. Hopefully the Zito horses make it through without breaking their legs. First Dude--Another to be victimized by a fellow I have previously pegged as a training idiot. Too bad for First Dude looks to have all the potential. Interactif by Pletcher--should see a game little horse using up what he's got from his training in the first mile or so.

On this basis then--throwing out those whose last breeze is more than 7 days out, we eliminate more than 1/2 the field Will see how this broad and general observation plays out in the race as a handicapping tool.

2. Take a look at those remaining that have a particularly logical work schedule. Note that I have declined to take a look in this mode of the prior throw outs above. I might take a closer look at them in terms of a well conceived program in the morning. The following horses, relative to the field, have superior programs as shown by PPs: Make Music For Me., Drosselmeyer, and Baffert's Game on Dude. These colts minimally should be running all the way around (instead of stopping at the quarter pole), and thus I'd hate to omit them from any serious exotic bet. As an interesting aside is Drosselmeyer, the Distorted Humor colt bought for $600,000 by Winstar at KE fall yearling sale a e.g. of the shenanigans that go on there, since they stand Distorted Humor, i.e. do the ridiculous prices paid for some of these colts reflect a true purchase?

Hoping for time to take a closer look in the morning, and then make some selections. I'm having trouble at the moment ignoring the talents of First Dude and Stately Victor.

Training:

Tues. 6/2: Normal off day. Rained.

Wed. 6/3 1.5 miles of walk-trot around the newly cut track with a spooky horse. Shys at every bird that flys up..

Thurs. 6/4: Mud from 1.25 inch rain Tues about half dried.. about 8 pm we start and voila, missing front shoe. By the time shoe is tacked back on its near dark and we get in only a 30f riderless work with numerous spurts as fast as they could go in slippery mud.