Lukas, O'Gorman Compared To The Rest

A smiley fellow and other than a conventional trainer.

Trainer Permanent Injury Rate Per Year/Recorded races-breezes per month average.

33%/8.00 O'Gorman

35%/3.54 Catherine Day Phillips

43%/3.33 D.Wayne Lukas

50%/2.98 Mark Hennig

50%/3.00 Bruce Jackson

50%/3.00 Todd Plecher

50%/3.4 Bongo Racing Stable

55%/??? Kiarin McGlaughlin

55%/??? Mark Casse

62%/4.00 Richard Mandella

65%/???Reade Baker

65%/Mr or Ms. Average American Conventional Trainer

69%/3.25 Linda Rice

75%/2.88 Doug O'Neill

Forgot in the last post the #1 characteristic of conventional trainers--their horses do speed work more than every 6 days, and certainly on a monthly basis they average less than one speed work per week. Once a week speed work would be 4.3 works per month, and, all in the list above do less than this # of breezes/races/month except O'Gorman. By that definition they are all conventional trainers, and Mr. Smiles above with his junior H.S. Education and yet saavy enough in this regard to be a top on the east coast is otherwise. Why? Because, as Dutrow says, "everybody knows what I do", and that is breezing every 6 days or less, ie. Dutrow by his own standard exceeds the breeze work ratio of every trainer above except O'Gorman. I'd guess Dutrow's website, if he had one, would show a very decent comparative injury rate.

Thus, in the list, we separate O'Gorman training merely by the number of speed works per month, as we might have T.J. Smith of Australia, Whitingham and a few others, where they to be included. All the rest I'd terms as conventional except Lukas. Day-Phillips with her nice injury rate will be dealt with next post.

Lukas stands out from the rest for reasons that unlike his fellows Lukas sends his horses to the track more than any other, including yours truly, by my reckoning an average of 22 times per month. If a horse is to gain anything in terms of injury prevention by some minimal regular exercise, then the horse would get that in the Lukas stable. I do believe the slightly lower injury rate that Lukas experienced in 1988 would be attributable to regular track work, and very consistent breeze work, although the average of that will be less than the required minimum that will be concluded here.

You will notice, of course, looking at this list of trainers, that my two bench marks, Lukas and O'Gorman (along with Day Phillips) have the best injury rates of the bunch. The conclusion of this story is fairly simple: If you have a "conventional trainer" as defined here, it looks as if you will get a 50%/year or worse "permanent injury rate". As an owner, this simply is impossible and explains why almost every owner is driven out of the sport eventually by the stupidity and carelessness of their trainers. If, however, you have a Lukas that does a little more, or O'Gorman that observes the rules of common sense, then, at least you have a shot.

Training:

Mon. 12/20/10: Off, after yesterday's hour long chase.

Tues. 12/21/10: The winter solstice probably is my favorite day of the year. 2 min. more of sunlight tomorrow. Arrived late due to work commitment. Barely time for riderless: 7 x 4f with full rests and 1/2 bursts of full speed mixed into each heat. Ground very hard. Hesitant to do more as the 15 year old is already off with sole bruising.