Trainer Stats and Frequency: Conclusions

"The stats show that the dividing line is between 7 and 8 days."

From my last post.

Can we with definitiveness say that the stats show that speed work every 7 days is enough to achieve fracture resistance (FR) in our horses? To arrive at what is definite or "true", scientific law as opposed to theorem or fact, we question everything and must answer all Qs. in affirmatively in support.

The first thing to Q about the bold typed statement above is the word "stats". I have been posting about "trainer stats", and yet, these are anything but "statistics" in a scientific sense, as "stats" here were merely information taken off of trainer websites with numerous suppositions made to arrive at "the stats". And, even had we been able to glean perfect stats, we know that statistics can be made to show almost anything depending on how we bend them. The point of course, the phrase "the stats" is problematical and being so puts everything else into Q.

With that disclaimer, it's also necessary to note the "the stats" as interpreted, support everything that I'd always supposed as being true: trainers who do speed work more than 7 days apart--and many do it 8, 9,10,11,12 days apart, or, never except for racing--injure most of their stock, and most very quickly. Whereas, when you see the rare trainer out there doing more, in the manner of yours truly, you still get injuries, but, as Tom Ivers would have phrased it, these are a lot more sincere these days than in past days of our ignorance. Doing frequent speed work--for years in the Ivers mode of every four days--I never had any injury at all that was other than a direct result of some stupidity generally of the "failure to control your rider" sort. Although the sum total of my races is small my breeze work was comparatively enormous, and I never ever had a horse of mine injured from directly resulting from the work the horse was doing. My experience was the opposite--my horses did enormous volumes of consistent speed work without any injury at all over years and years.

And so, here is what I can say about the trainer stats:

Indeed they show, in support of my personal careful observations, that your trainers that are failing speed work once a week have a high rate of injury for their stables. Those breezing only occasionally or only racing have a 100% injury rate/year. Those breezing stupidly and failing to control their riders also have near 100% injury rate.

And, I am suspecting, based alone on these stats, that the dividing line between FR and non-FR for most horses probably is in the 7 day range. Breeze every 7 days, do so consistently for 2 or 3 months, and your probably going to get an FR horse.

But then we have trainers as Day-Phillips who get their FR horse, start racing and the exercise schematic goes out the window. As in human athletics such as professional baseball, the experts are just now starting to catch on to the necessity of in-season training. This, of course, brings up a Q yet to be dealt with--the Q of "de-training". Once FR is achieved, how quickly is it lost unless the work continues?

One more observation has to be made--we have so few samples of such as O'Gorman, who breezes at a higher rate, and on the soft European surface no less--and insignificant samples as my own work--those few of us who do exceed the normal stats--that it is impossible to say what e.g. is the "ideal" amount of speed work frequency. To find the "minimums" and the "ideal" are different Qs. And, please note, we have both the trainer stats, and the look at physiology such as extensively looked at on this blog.

Training:

Mon: 1/17: decent pasture romp with a little speed work.

1/18-1/21 Off due to weather. Snow storms, cold and about 9 inches of snow on the ground.

1/22: Riderless paddock work for 7 minutes. The horses really really surprised as to how easily they galloped over the snow. I should have been working them all along. At any rate, we get a few short spurts, and possibly I can start up again from what I saw this date.

1/23: Off. Bitter cold and warmer coming. We escape the forecast 5 inches of snow!!!