Derby PPs
Does training make a difference in performance? You'd like to think so. In training terms however, there are many ways to peel the apple and thus frequently, surprises are the order of the day. With this rousing preface, here are the Derby PPs summarized as they appear since March 12 (noting the DRF free PPS fail to contain the second line of PPs going back to first of year, hence we look at how they've trained 45 days pre-derby, which is 1.5 months.):
Horse: Speed furlongs traveled/average # of works-races per month
Midnight Interlude: 50/5.3--Any surprise Baffert at top?
Nehro: 47/5.3--also other than a surprise but they've really backed off of late.
ArchArchArch: 46/5.3--Jincks fires rises to the occasion.
MuchoMachoMan: 43/4.7--The lady is trying. Insufficiently from what I see.
WatchMeGo: 38/4--Bordering on my personal minimums.
Santiva: 37/4.7
Brilliant Speed: 36/4.7--Note that he breezes in :13s, i.e. under fracture resistance (FR) speeds.
Comma At The Top: 36/4--editorial comment below.
Twice The Appeal: 35/4-- Stocky horse near the minimums.
Derby Kitten: 34/3.33--Without any speed work 2 weeks pre-derby. Has that ever won?
Soldat: 33/6--slightly more by this trainer.
Stay Thirsty: 32/4--uninspiring for an lesser talent, i.e. no training effort to move him up.
Animal Kingdom: 30/3.33 severe training deficits start to show up here and below.
Shackelford: 30/3.33
Uncle Mo: 27/4
Pants On Fire: 27/3.3--What can be expected from this?
Decisive Moment: 26/2.7 --Or this?
Dialed In: 21/2.7: Zito's long gallop routine puts this horse on the serious FR list. Will it work?
My guess--no way, although racing style minimizes the physiological challenge.
UNCLE MO: they've got him at a perfect weight. Is off feed, which they say is an infection. More likely it's merely the usual lack of gut bacteria that cause this common problem of off feed, but it does present Q whether there'll be sufficient glycogen to get the horse around. And, an interesting training pattern for Plecher is finally uncovered. Breeze--rest--rest--2m gallop--gallop--race. More comment on that later. It does have some good logic to it! Has Mo done enough from what shows in the PPs? My take--if so then barely. It could go either way. The safer prediction is he fades around the 3/16 pole.
COMMA AT THE TOP: Pressey's horse. There's a vid of Comma early this week in his stall with the horse and trainer, his shaved head glistening, bursting at the seams. Horses that do a lot of work do not look like this. If you look at Comma's routine, particularly this week, you understand why the horse lacks speed in the stretch. Additionally, while the racing schedule far exceeds the field and the experience will be a great aid to the horse, physiologically--what you did last October will have little influence without appropriate training close to the race. On the premise that winning the Derby requires covering all the bases, I think this trainer is coasting with his horse. I expect to see a good effort by Comma, but when he reaches down for his anaerobic reserves query whether anything will be there?
Training: And, what's this? The farm dog.?
It's Racco, the very well fed raccoon, out a little early to observe the proceedings. 5/5 it rained and we took day off to give sore hoof more chance to heal.
Horse: Speed furlongs traveled/average # of works-races per month
Midnight Interlude: 50/5.3--Any surprise Baffert at top?
Nehro: 47/5.3--also other than a surprise but they've really backed off of late.
ArchArchArch: 46/5.3--Jincks fires rises to the occasion.
MuchoMachoMan: 43/4.7--The lady is trying. Insufficiently from what I see.
WatchMeGo: 38/4--Bordering on my personal minimums.
Santiva: 37/4.7
Brilliant Speed: 36/4.7--Note that he breezes in :13s, i.e. under fracture resistance (FR) speeds.
Comma At The Top: 36/4--editorial comment below.
Twice The Appeal: 35/4-- Stocky horse near the minimums.
Derby Kitten: 34/3.33--Without any speed work 2 weeks pre-derby. Has that ever won?
Soldat: 33/6--slightly more by this trainer.
Stay Thirsty: 32/4--uninspiring for an lesser talent, i.e. no training effort to move him up.
Animal Kingdom: 30/3.33 severe training deficits start to show up here and below.
Shackelford: 30/3.33
Uncle Mo: 27/4
Pants On Fire: 27/3.3--What can be expected from this?
Decisive Moment: 26/2.7 --Or this?
Dialed In: 21/2.7: Zito's long gallop routine puts this horse on the serious FR list. Will it work?
My guess--no way, although racing style minimizes the physiological challenge.
UNCLE MO: they've got him at a perfect weight. Is off feed, which they say is an infection. More likely it's merely the usual lack of gut bacteria that cause this common problem of off feed, but it does present Q whether there'll be sufficient glycogen to get the horse around. And, an interesting training pattern for Plecher is finally uncovered. Breeze--rest--rest--2m gallop--gallop--race. More comment on that later. It does have some good logic to it! Has Mo done enough from what shows in the PPs? My take--if so then barely. It could go either way. The safer prediction is he fades around the 3/16 pole.
COMMA AT THE TOP: Pressey's horse. There's a vid of Comma early this week in his stall with the horse and trainer, his shaved head glistening, bursting at the seams. Horses that do a lot of work do not look like this. If you look at Comma's routine, particularly this week, you understand why the horse lacks speed in the stretch. Additionally, while the racing schedule far exceeds the field and the experience will be a great aid to the horse, physiologically--what you did last October will have little influence without appropriate training close to the race. On the premise that winning the Derby requires covering all the bases, I think this trainer is coasting with his horse. I expect to see a good effort by Comma, but when he reaches down for his anaerobic reserves query whether anything will be there?
Training: And, what's this? The farm dog.?
It's Racco, the very well fed raccoon, out a little early to observe the proceedings. 5/5 it rained and we took day off to give sore hoof more chance to heal.
posted by rather rapid at
9:37 AM
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2 Comments:
"Pressey's horse"? Not sure Comma wants this title! Nor do I want him to have it if he runs 19th tomorrow.
We'll know shortly. I did predict the springtime Uncle Mo flop in January - and the Toby's Corner trouble the morning after the Wood.
I agree RR, the connections of Comma to the Top have turned ultra conservative since moving to dirt - and I hate the fact he shipped in so late this week.
But as Santa Anita turned Premier Pegasus and Jaycito into hamburger - Comma came out stronger, so who am I to criticize?
In it's simplest form, trainers should be collecting heart rate, speed, and blood lactate data after every gallop and work - and KNOW when a training regimen is, or is not, working - then react accordingly.
Simply put: as long as the objective numbers trend positively, I don't care what the hell you do in conditioning.
This is aweesome
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