Handicapping Florida/Louisiana Derby

We're paying more attention to what goes on in Louisiana since we have two Louisiana bred youngsters.  Louisiana Derby weekend.  An important TC race.  And, the Florida Derby with three nice colts as headliners.

The PPs for these races show that TC training now days basically boils down to once a week breezing.  There are still a few hold outs to this method that show in the PPs--mostly the local training idiots--.  By and large PPs show a variation of 4f, 5f, with an occasional 6f weekly breeze and ItsMyLuckyDay has a (whoops) mile work sprinkled in.  Orb seems to be trained in Bobby Frankel style by Shug McGaughey III in sporting 4f breezes once a week.  Worked for Frankel in the day.

When everyone does substantially the same breeze type work then the off day training becomes critical.  We know that most of these major or super trainers take provide excellent horse husbandry type care.  There are differences however in off day work.  Some gallop off days more than others.  E.g. Is this one the kiss of death for Itsmyluckyday--I recall reading a couple of weeks ago or so from trainer Edward Plesa that "the horse is fit. We're just trying to keep him happy now"--or some such nonsense whatever the exact words?

Breeze day training is substantially similar/off day galloping unknown makes handicapping these races logically nearly impossible.  To make an intelligent bet you'd almost have to be at the tracks watching the gallops.

A few cursory impressions:

Shanghai Bobby--flash from a brief vid showed the horse in fine fettle. I tend to pick up on this sort of thing.

Itsmyluckyday--anyone think "Edward Plesa Jr." can train?  No. Nope.  Will see.

Frac Daddy--eliminate anything trained by Kenneth McPeek.

Orb-4fs in :48s once a week/ Bobby Frankel.  Can 4f works cut it these days?  Doubtful.

Merit Man--getting ink.  Unknown why.

Based on a 10 min handicapping job and a short vid, the RR Florida Derby pick is Shanghai Bobby.

Palice Malice--Plecher's 5f breezes r getting a little faster, suddenly.  Slow learners like Plecher tend to come around eventually.

Revolutionary--by the ill fated War Pass (ill fated because he was trained by Nick Zito instead of that he died)

Sunbean--trained by Albert Stall Jr. Take note the horse has won three straight races, which always
catches the eye.  The breeze work is ridiculous, unfortunately.

Departing--same deal--3 races won, trained by Albert Stall Jr.

Code West--shows the most intelligent breezework and coincidentally trained by Bob Baffert. Nice breeding to boot.

Proud Strike trained by Steve Asmussen.  Last time powder puff last breeze works worked was with Curlin.  Asmussen will figure it eventually.

Titletown Five by D.W. Lukas.  Might be another Lukas training renaissance happening. Happens once a decade in response to competition. Probably insufficient experience for this horse.

My Lute--insufficient breezing.

Ground Transport by BIG BROWN trained by Michael Stidham.  Nice Job.  Threat!

Big Field in LA Derby.

RR pick:  Code West runs down Ground Transport--I tend to go by the good training that shows.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch Mr. Nob is very pleased with our trot-walk 10 min. on #17 last eve.