Belmont Contenders And Pick

This will be a pick more on feel based on interviews and the few vids that show instead of handicapping the PPs..  Congrats to Blood Horse for actually showing a glimpse or two of the Thurs. gallops.  Q--why do they send a whole troop of reporters and give 2 min. per day of vid that contains 30 seconds of the horses? End of rant.

Contenders:  Golden Soul, Orb, Overanalyze, Palice Malice, Oxbow, Revolutionary.

Only 6 of 'em.  This blogger so far is historically lousy at picking winners although, trying hard to think of a time when somebody I eliminated won. Sticking my neck out here because I eliminated a lot of them.

There are three Plecher horses, and three more.

On race record Orb is the standout.  Yet Mike Watchmaker at DRF reports that prior to Belmont Week Orb's gallops were uninspiring.  He's done one :47 and change in 3 weeks, and I have suspected that they've backed off on his traning.  Has physical appearance of a great horse.  Of these sorts of things are handicapping dilemas made.

Golden Soul--Mike Watchmaker likes him except, again, I am underwhelmed by those short slow works.  He'll probably be up close.  Unable to see how this horse kicks in front unless everybody else quits.

Oxbow--Watchmaker dislikes the way he's been looking, got tired at end of slow work at Churchill.  Latter is unsurprising since it was first time it looks like the horse did anything fast in 2 weeks.  Last breeze 9 days out, good grief.  One thing we do know-a horse that looked that good on Preakness day might carry that into his next race and outrun his training..  I'd have to think Oxbow is a serious threat.  Too bad his trainer declined continuing training him for in that instance the horse would be a strong favorite.  Inexplicable what these trainers do except, must note, possible minor injury or such could have held Oxbow back since Preakness.

Plecher horses:  I was disturbed by Watchmaker's early in the week comment that Plecher horses in terms of being on track had suddenly disappeared from the radar.  Yet, I have to think Plecher has a smart plan in terms of optimal condition for race day, and we have to deal with Plecher's longer faster works new race day appropriate warm up.  Good warm up less telling in long race like Belmont.  Yet, have to think merely act of proper warm up gives all Plecher horses big advantage.

Based on the above which primarily involve training failures, I'd have go with one of the Plecher horses.  This race is a crap shoot, and, given likely muddy track, my pick will be Overanalyze with his smaller hoofs

Training:  both horses did their tack work.  Bellying #148 for now.  #148 was lunged riderless on double lunge line.  Once again escaped and did a fast gallop 3f back to his buddies dragging the lunge line.  The horse can cover ground.