Is Y Really A Derby Prospect

There is a small difference in terms of odds between running in the Kentucky Derby and winning it. We are reminded that there are 30,000+ thoroughbred foals born in any given year. There is one Derby Winner and less than 20 starters. Eskimo terrorists are more likely to kidnap your foal than it run in the Derby.

It is November 2006. Does Y still have the 1/30,000 chance he had at conception to win the Derby? I neglected to mention that one half the 2005 crop are fillies, so, except for the most die hard feminist there goes half the competition (and, yes we are aware that the filly Winning Collors won the thing in 1988. The last prior female before that was 1905). And, we presume by now a few others have weaned themselves out of the picture, most of these by injury, death, and circumstance. But, really, I expect most of the male crop of 2005 is still actively in the picture, though the sorting out has begun.

Allow me to fill you in on a few facts: imo it is far more likely the derby winner was born before April 15, 2005 and probably before April 1. Those extra months of maturity do make a difference, check the stats. And, there are many other things. E.g. Preston Birch, my all time favorite trainer and role model (order his book at Amazon.com) commenced to break his yearling in June of the yearling year which might horrify our present variety of hard boots. And, Preston had 'em breezing 3F under tack by early December. Preston and his ilk would be so far ahead of Y by now with their training that it would be less than a fair fight come the first Saturday in May.

Luckily, now days, most yearlings commence breaking in September, and thus, Y is only a couple months behind. Moreover he is catching up fast--on his training, that is. That's about all the time I have for right now. Though we might look at the macro picture first. We'll get the the micro side of things eventually.