Derby Predictions

A few Derby preps this weekend, so, interrupt the posts for some thoughts and what looks like another interesting Derby. I'm really unable to recall the last time there were so many potentially talented horses.

Steve Haskin today describes No Biz Like Show Biz as "man among boys". I finally saw a clip and would agree, and since I've had a couple of those "man among boys" types over the years I'm familiar how the longer stride and stronger more leveraged rear legs can power away from lesser physical specimens. Unable to tell you how many times I saw that happen in the pasture with my Smooth Machine and Gold Brush.

So, the question for No Biz, can he overcome the training of Barclay Tagg? Yes, I did read the Funnycide book and was fairly underwhelmed with the typical weak conventional training indicated by that book.

But, Tagg, like Baffert has to be respected. Tagg over the last 15 years produced a number of very good horses, and, moreover, Barclay may be learning something of late as I was extremely impressed with the performance and appearance of Showing Up in his last race.

Additionally, how characteristic is it of a conventional trainer these days to breeze a horse 4f on Thursday before a Saturday race as No Biz yesterday? You never see that anymore, and so, we congratulate Tagg for the important step of bringing a breeze closer to a race.

And yet, I'd have to have a talk with Barclay. What is he thinking? I'm reasonably sure that B. Tagg, as myself, through much experience knows that maximum recovery from a :12/f breeze takes three days instead of two. Why do this breeze Thursday when it should probably have been done Wednesday for perfect spacing? The only thing I can think of would be this: The breeze was done on Thurs. morning, the race is late Sat. afternoon. If you count the number of hours between breeze and race, then it really is almost three days. So, maybe Barclay is ahead of me here. We will see in the race.

Then there is Stormello, who I really liked in the two year old race against a very fast horse named Principle Secret who has some questionable connections. Throw out what you read about Stormello's pedigree failing to go the Derby Distance. Can we say Funnyside. And, if you look at the pedigree there's plenty of distance in it, and it's combined with speed. Were this horse trained for distance, he'd get it easily.

Unfortunately, it seems in Stormello we have that sort of questionable training and handling that you frequently see from unsteady trainers before the big event. In short, they clutch.

While No Biz was breezing 4f Thur. Stormello was in a little stall on a plane for 16 hours. This was followed apparently by a hard gallop today. Earth to Bill Currin, first, you do not do a hard gallop the day before a race. 2nd, if you're going to ship in from CA to FL had you thought about shipping far enough in advance to give your horse a chance to recover, or, just scratch it. It's a silly plan in the first place. Unknown how Currin trains, but, two things give a clue--1. the weak performance in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile. and 2. a photo of the man himself, a non-athlete couch potato, the sort of trainer that only guess what an athlete requires because they are unable to relate athletic performance with their own experience.

Finally, there's Doug O'Neil, about whom I knew nothing 6 months ago, but, every clip I see and statement out of the man's mouth indicates he understands what "fitness" is and that he knows how to train. Right now, my pick for the Derby--any horse trained by Doug O'Neil, which I'll qualify by saying we should fear the man among boys if Barclay with his lesser methods can keep him sound. A whereisdabird word later about Birdbirdistheword and another "man among boys" named Ravel.

Today's Training:
Abscess report: This week another weather event and we're again in 4 inch deep nearly frozen mud. For Art, little difference, but, I'm starting to seriously worry about the May 1 first race date at Eureka for the oldsters. To refresh: by Sunday Art was showing abscesses on both fronts. By Mon., one had broken through and appeared ok, and the other was in a boot with epsom salt paste. Last night, no limping at all and I was ready to say the our abscess expert Mr. Nob had done another superb job. This morning the horse was limping so badly he could hardly move. Somehow lost the boot over night, the buckle broke. Developing.