Derby Analysis 2007

I want to seguay occasionally to Derby analysis. That's 2007, instead of 2008. We're getting close. Time to stick the neck out before all the favorite's establish themselves in the coming big races. I'm without a clue as to who'll win the Lane's End tomorrow. I've followed only Hard Spun. Helen Pitts = Woman Trainer. She might win a race at some point, but it will be nothing consistent based on her pre-race comments.

Phew! Maybe it's been since Spend A Buck and company that I've seen a Derby field with this depth and quality. How do we know? This year any set of functioning eyeballs can identify several exceptional horses: Stormello, Street Sense, Scat Daddy, Cobalt Blue and the recently departed Ravel, who might have added even more athleticism and speed to a dangerous bunch.

Below this upper echelon, Circular Quay, Any Given Saturday, Ketchikan, Curlin, Adore The Gold and King Of The Roxy showing plenty. The other contenders I throw out for various reasons. One example: Let's see, according to the Bird Blog, Bird is done breezing in prep for the Illinois Derby. Mind you, McPeek will change his mind on that, but, need more be said?

Considerations:

1. Training and conditioning; the fittest horse or horses. The on going process of filtering out what the trainers are doing is but guess work as to the future. Certain trainers shy away from conditioning after racing begins, and Nafzger is one of those. But, let me observe, last year all the Derby trainers breezed and raced fairly consistently and logically right up to Derby time. We're seeing even more appropriate conditioning this year to the point it's hard to sort them out. Just a few observations: Scat Daddy had a first slow breeze 3/17 after the Fountain of Youth. Is one more breeze enough going into the Florida Derby? Against Stormello, I doubt it.
My opinion, and it's guessing, Stormello's conditioning and racing is a cut above the rest. Pick Stormello here. Predicting Nafzger will figure out, too late, his horses needed another race. Nice conditioning job to date on Street Sense. But, since I know Nafzger lets up and that's just the opposite of what this horse needs, predict Street Sense will be subsumed in the stretch of the Derby.
2. Jockey. This is big, but, I've been doing other things besides handicapping jocks.
3. Talent: Natural speed, stride efficiency (throw out head bobbers like No Biz), stride length, natural stamina and acquiescence. Cobalt Blue and Stormello seem to have such in abundance. The jury is out on Street Sense. He looks smaller as a three year old.
4. Experience: Unless you're Michael Matz training in company every day at Fairhill, this is necessary. I think it takes three races. That would be Plecher, but, we'll see.
5. Intelligence of the trainer: big factor! nutrition, timing of the works, understanding exercise physiology, down to simple things as assuring your horse sleeps the night before the race (amazing how many trainers fail at this.), etc. Any of these trainers a little sharper than the rest? Pletcher, perhaps. He's imipressing me.
6. Genetics, Breeding, Auction Price, Breeder, Owner, everything else: Minor factors, though the background strength and mental make up of the horse may tell in tight situations.

Conclude: Way to close to call except on a hunch. Mine is that Currin will take advantage of Pletcher's Rabbit, King of the Roxy, and train his horse to go on. Stormello, despite lack of racing this year, stands out in both talent and training. I'm going to avoid hedging. Stormello will win the Derby.

One more note: few injuries to date. Applaud Pletcher for catching Ravel's problem before he became another Pine Island. Few injuries indicate good training. Will it last?

Today's Training:
3/21/07 Burch Day 3 several 1f riderless springs in Astride paddock at :13 to :13.5 speed.
3/22/07 Day 1: Off due to weather
3/23/07 Day 2: This is what I like about Burch training. Everything is a mess with 1.5 inches of rain. But, with speed work tomorrow, I can take the day off without too much fretting. Never could do this with Ivers where every missed workout was a mini-disaster. Hopefully we can go fast somewhere tomorrow.