Beat By A Late Lead Change

Faust: "How can I rid myself and breath? The bell but tinkles and I seethe."

Mephistopheles: "Of course such chief annoyance must turn all one's life to ash and dust".

The devil making fun of Faust reflects the small irritation that will stick in Carl Nafzger's mind when he fully analyzes yesterday's race. The "chief annoyance" in this case will be a late and skillfully corrected lead change by Curlin which allowed that horse enough energy to catch Street Sense in the stretch.

Let me explain this. For at least a decade I have preached to my jocks what seems utterly logical. After you turn into the stretch instead of automatically changing to the right lead at the 3/16 if you'd wait another two strides to change the lead, would you have more horse at the wire?

Horses change leads because they tire on one lead and go to the fresh rear leg. I've always figured that in the hard charge down the stretch the right lead will start to severely fatigue just short of the wire, and so, if we delay the lead change a little we'll have more horse at the end.

In practice I was never able to get a jock to try this, and, when Nob started riding I learned that really it's the horse that decides to change the lead at the 3/16. Despite Nob's best efforts we have never been able to get a horse to delay the lead change with any consistency.

In yesterday's race this happened automatically when Curlin's positioning prevented a lead change at the normal spot and Albarado skillfully corrected Curlin in midstretch. From there on it was other than a fair fight with the tape showing Curlin bouncing off that late lead change and running down the tiring Street Sense at the wire.

A few miscellaneous thoughts on the Preakness:

1. Curlin had the far better jock in this race--smaller, creates more efficient stride, much better timing of the moves. Albarado corrected incorrect leads not once but twice. Did you see his skillful change when Curlin stumbled onto the wrong lead coming out of the gate. A lesser jock would have allowed the horse to go right on with the left lead.

2. Car Nafzger is a great trainer. But, if you want to win the Triple Crown do you need to pay attention to the little stuff? Here are some things I noted:

-- No aerodynamic silks for SS. They say the aerodynamics create half a length.

-- Different style shoes on fronts and rear. Unknown what Curlin wears, but, you watch the two horses, Curlin has the smoother more efficient stride.

--The strong gallop the day before the race under a 155 lbs exercise rider--and I guarantee that with the weight of the jeans and boots it's every bit of that, taking unnecessary energy out of the horse. I'm ok with the gallop, but, where was Borel?

--The 7f gallop out on Tuesday--too much too close to the race for a horse trained like SS.

--The trot the morning after the Derby upset the whole schedule between the races. Without that trot Nafzger might have planned the training itinerary much more effectively. I noted the negative body language as they were leading the horse out that morning. Mental fatigue--horses get it too.

--I have no argument with the use of Calvin Borel. He's a good jock and decent guy, and probably the one that is available to Nafzger. However, Calvin might run this race quite differently with 20-20 hindsight. Faulty, questionable race strategy between jock and trainer? Why let a horse of this ability fall that far behind and then essentially have to make a 5f move to get in position. Those sorts of things can get you beat.

As to the winner, in my prior post as to Asmussen I fudged my negativity by including an "Unknown". We'll see how this progresses with this nice horse?

Today's training:
5/18/07 Fri. Day 1 Burch: 10 min walk under tack.
5/19/07 Sat: riderless gallop in the paddock by himself for the first time. Horse handled being by himself like a seasoned vet and did not diverge from the directed path to seek the other horses but once. He was slow galloped in heats of 2f at a time with short rest periods for about 8 minutes. I'm guessing he galloped all told 1.5 miles. Nice moving horse with a high cruising speed. 8 min walk under tack.
5/20/07 Sun: Day 3 Burch to come.