The Preakness

The din of information overload makes analyzing anything just about as difficult these days as being without info in the first place. So, let's ignore everything, all the handicapping stuff, the Blogs, the Forum discussions, and also that excellent analysis by the blog and commenters on Left at the Gate, and look at the Preakness solely from the angle of the training. Even though there are numerous factors influencing any race including the sort of inexplicable type performances that horses occasionally put in such as I'mawildandcrazy Guy recently, it starts and ends with conditioning. How big a part does the horse's fitness for the event play in the final out come? My guess--about 75%. Of course, it's a relative thing. Depends on who you're running against, and the training of the whole group. With that in mind here's a look at the field and what we know.

1. Mint Slewlep shows 6 races or works in six weeks, but mostly at 4F. Earth to Robert Bailes (trainer): "the race is 1 3/16 mile.

2. Xchanger: the trainer, Mark Shuman (trainer for Michael Gill) admits and even boasts that he trains soft and that Xchanger has been trained soft. Since X shows 4 works or races in six weeks I agree. Caveat though--talented horse with nice 5f and 6f work last two weeks. I poo poo soft trainers and pay attention to the better among them at the same time. If the horse is competitive, it would be due to anything other than a rational reason. So, toss.

3. Circular Quay: 6 works and races in 6 weeks. Typical Pletcher. This is a nice horse, Pletcher trained. And, I put more stock in Pletcher training than most, from what I've been seeing lately. There's a Derby bounce and a nice :48.2 work 5/14. CQ qualifies as best of the rest.

4. Curlin: 7 works or races in six weeks on the surface indicate a conditioning trainer. But, too many 4f works in here for my taste which likely are predictive that this trainer is the brainless, mindless sort who fares well against competitors of his own ilk but is far outclassed in this group. Unknown though. The horse looks like he has enough talent to outrun his connections and I expect him to be on CQ's flank coming down the stretch.

5. King of the Roxy: same deal, Pletcher. 6 works and races in 6 weeks. Talented speed horse with 6f work 5/12. Legitimate threat to SS but for one thing. Last race on April 7. This horse will lack racing fitness and fade before the mile marker.

6. Flying First Class: 6 races and works in 6 weeks. This horse is getting in condition. He's large and heavy--the Hard Spun sort. I've theorized that the old softer trainers such as Lukas are unable to compete with the new guys without changing their ways. Has the old fellow changed his stripes. Doubtful. Expect FFC to run like Charismatic. Watch that Preakness and see if you can see any horse actually running coming down the stretch.

6. Hard Spun: Congratulations to L. Jones for belatedly understanding his horse needed some speed work before the Preakness. But, jeez. Can a guy who professes to be in horse training for 43 years figure this out before hand? Hard Spun has talent. Additionally the 180 lbs + exercise rider is a conditioning factor that on occasion probably provides Jones with a victory.
Can HS's Derby bounce be maintained on two weeks of 1.5 miles galloping slow under 180lbs and a :24 work. Answer: no. Up the track. On reconsideration--there's enough here for HS to compete with Curlin for 3rd. Too bad he's trained by Jones instead of Nafzger.

7. Street Sense: Charlie Whittingham training should prevail in this race. One worry. Nafzger said he was done as of Tuesday. That's a little early to be done, Carl. Before the Derby I observed if training means anything this horse will win in a runaway. That still goes.

8. C.P. West: trained by 4f Nick Zito. Nothing more needs to be said. Toss.