Derby Day

15 No Biz Like Show Biz
14 Street Sense
14 Tiago
13 Curlin
13 Zanjero
13 Bwana Bull
12 Stormello
11 Hard Spun
11 Circular Quay
11 Any Given Saturday
11 Sam P.
10 Cow Town Cat
10 Scat Daddy
10 Great Hunter
10 Liquidity
10 Teuflesberg
9 Sedgefield
7 Storm in May
6 I'm A Wild and Crazy Guy

Will the fittest horse win the Derby? Maybe. The above indicates the NUMBER of works AND races each entrant had since January 26, 2007 as a measure of fitness of each horse. There are of course many things which affect fitness besides just the "number" of the works and races, such as quality of breezes and races and also the speed (Asmussen doing 4F on Monday, but Nagzger on Tuesday getting a mile in 1:42 on the gallop out.), and also what is done on the off days (SS galloping 2 miles Thursday through the mud while the rest stayed in their stalls or trotted a mile).

But, what is measurable over time and what we are able to analyze simplistically to determine fitness is the total number of times the horse ran fast since 1/26/07. Notice: No Biz worked and raced 15 times. I'm A Wild And Crazy Guy worked and raced 6 times. May we ask a simple question: what is the trainer of Wild and Crazy Guy thinking? Does I'm A Wild And Crazy Guy or Storm In May have any chance against No Biz or Street Sense based only on the number of works and races. The answer is "of course not", which brings to mind the same question for all the trainers who horses worked or raced 10 or less times in 3.5 months.

I throw Todd Pletcher out of this analysis. I've written several times that I'm trying to figure out what Pletcher is doing with his horses. Let's just say its more than the published works or races because it's impossible for Pletcher to consistently have the fittest horse in every race based on what we see published. There's something going on there, and I'd like to know what it is.

But, for the rest of them, I'll make the simple prediction that the horses half way down on the above scale (excepting Pletcher) will finish up the track, and the one's near the top should at least be competitive. I'm looking for a runaway by Street Sense down the stretch due to the overall training job, but, believe the above chart will identify those who just stop and those who have a chance because their level of fitness allows them to run all the way to the wire. I believe the winner will come from the group with 13 or more works and races since January 26, or from Pletcher's group who are flying under the radar.