Curlin And Breezing Speed(see correction next post)

Curlin is in Dubai. The Blood Horse article says Curlin did his prep stateside before shipping. Unless I've missed a breeze, they've breezed him four times since the Breeder's Cup on (or about) 11/1. Four breezes in four months that went something like this:

4f in :53
4f in :50
5f in 1:02
4f in :50.5 in Dubai

Then we have one 1 1/4 mile race 2/28 (I think) then the Dubai World Cup.

Based on the above, is disaster looming for Curlin? If you're a trainer how could that fail to go through your brain given this powderpuff work schedule?

In terms of my recent posts, most of this work has been in :12.5 or slower. Here is a trainer, based on my recent conclusions, that is doing the bare minimum speed for fracture resistance with hard to fathom distance and frequency to boot. How do you go off a few slow 4F works and race 1.25 miles against the best horses in the world with a horse looking as if its packing a hundred more pounds, and live to survive?

A few "qualifications" on my opinion. It is unknown what Curlin does on his off days. I've long suspected that you are unable to get a horse of this quality from these cotton tissue Asmussen breezes and that thusly Asmussen does a lot with Curlin that we never see. It is documented that Asmussen frequently gallops horses 2 miles, and if Curlin has spent the better part of two months coming home in :12s on several two mile gallops per week, my opinion would change as to adequate fracture resistance.

Additionally we have the factor of a very experienced trainer, lots of horses running now for years and years, that has perhaps honed exactly what he can get away with. I'd hesitate to call Asmussen the fool that the above workout schedule indicates. Of course, if Curlin breaks down, that will solve the mystery whether the horse did more than the breezing schematic above. I'd go on record as saying you simply are unable to get by with this little work in four months even with D.W. Lukas style galloping thrown in and go from that immediately into high pressure 1.25 mile racing and fail to have a significant injury. We'll see!

Training: on 2/23 we got another nice (and fast) riderless pasture romp. Ground looks good to go again today as it only got up to 38 degrees for a few hours. Hopefully we'll have time before dark to recommence tack work.