This Weekend's Races

I'll make the bold statement that performances that you'll see this weekend will depend primarily on the job done by the trainers, and that based on PPs that it's fairly easy to see which horses most likely will prevail.

There seems this year in particular such a difference between what most of the trainers are about and what the few more progressive trainers should accomplish.

Given that RR prostignatory abilities remain unfortunately highly fallible, it'll be interesting as always to see whether predictions made solely on training instead of the various handicapping factors will show us this weekend's winners.

And so, below a comparative look that might ferret out the training idiots from those that know what they're doing. My adjectives get stronger as I go on for I'm particularly concerned based on some of the gross stupidity I'm seeing this year how soon we'll have another Go for Wand or Barbaro.

There are numerous conventional trainers here in the Lukas mold. Mott, Zito, Craig Dollase, and then some slightly more progressive such as Plecher, and then those that are these days far exceeding what I consider normal conventional training: Tagg, Eion Harty, Asmussen. I suspect the horses of this latter group should show very well against first very soft group.

Let's look at what some horses have done.

First, the conventional of the conventional: Steve Klesaris.

Klesaris has raced Roman Emperor in stakes once a month in 2008. In addition to these three races RE shows exactly 4 breezes for the year, and so RE totals 7 fast works in 3+ months, or an average of one fast work every 13.5 days. We may imagine additionally that this horse probably gallops 3 times a week and probably "come home" a couple of furlongs once or twice a week. We therefore have a talented animal on the bare edge of performance fitness, but probably at significant risk of catastrophic injury due to lack of fast work. RE has been trained like the typical $5000 claimer and is being asked to race 1 1/8 mile off of sparse 5f breezes. The possibilility of bone injury in that sudden :59.4 on 3/25 ten days out from the race would be "high". The last 45 days RE shows two works and one race. If this horse does anything besides finish up the track my poor heart will suffer another major shock.

Then, our Hall of Famer, Mr. Zito. This becomes particularly disgusting. Here's Zito quoted yesterday in the Blood Horse after Cool Coal Man's atrocious looking work at Keenland. Zito appears to be missing Jamie Sanders. "I always talk about letting them run down the lane a little bit (before the race)--kind of like a blowout the old fashion way. Where still traditionalists, right?" Query Zito's use of "traditionalist"?

So, CCM gets a 4f work 9 days out from the race and he'll get to "run down the lane" once more before the race. That should set him up nicely for the 1 1/8 mile, right? Here's War Pass for the year:

1/10 :37
1/26: 48.4 why do anything fast besides run down the lane for 16 straight days?
2/6 :46.4 guess Zito reconsidered his spacing here.
2/16 1:13.1 10 days here.
3/6 :1.01.4 and, 13 days later. Do we feel a Tampa Bay coming?
3/15 up the track at Tampa Bay. La Penta speculates, and this seems reasonably correct, a flipped palate. That's what unconditioned horses do Robert. You know this when you're on their backs. With unfit horses, after a certain distance the breathing mechanisms clam up.
3/27: 47.2 That should set us up perfectly for the 1 1/8 mile 9 days later, eh?

For WP 7 fast works for the year and a some running down the lane. Like Klesaris WP has worked or raced about every two weeks for the year. Anybody think he'll make it all the way around this time?

Then we have Barclay Tagg with Tale of Ekati, Eion Harty with Colonel John, and David Carrol with Dennis of Cork. Compare:

Tale of Ekati: 13 works and races for the year: averages every 7 days.
Colonel John: this one got started late, but in last 60 days 10 breeze/race or every 6 days
Dennis of Cork: 12 breeze/race (include 12/31) but in the last 60 days about every 7 days.

The latter 3 all breezed at 7 days or closer out from the race.

You may carry the example to the rest of the fields. The RR predictions: I'd suspect War Pass will shut down prior to injuring himself, but, should he be able to carry his speed for distance out of sheer competitiveness and ability, there's a significant risk here. I'll be gritting my teeth on that one. I avoid underestimating Pletcher. The Tagg and Harty horses should show well, and looks as if Shosberg has done a decent job with Giant Moon.

Training: March was our strengthening month, with April designated as the beginnings of tack work for both youngsters. Off yesterday, we'll commence this evening.