Big Brown's Fitness Level

" Were I heir to all this land, I'd give every foot to have this face. I would not be Sir Nob in any case"

Nor would I be Dutrow, for every foot, but, if I were Dutrow for a day or so should I be concerned about Dennis of Cork, Tale of Ekati? Casino Drive, and as Bill commented last post, Guadalcanal? There are some good horses in this race, and note the video that shows Casino Drive to be quite a bit better stronger horse since the Peter Pan.

I've yet to see the PPs. I'd be interested in Dennis's breezing schedule and whether he's been prepped for the distance. An educated guess on this that it's doubtful, but, assume (for analysis) that Dennis can carry his considerable talent all the way with Albarado on board replacing Borel and making a move sooner than in the Derby. What do we then get from this talented horse Dennis of Cork?

My thinking-- if Dennis and Big Brown are on equal terms in fitness BB would be BB and put Dennis away easily. I've recently watched all 100+ Derbies trying in vain to find one that might stride out with BB. Nada. All things being equal BB might be 10 lengths better than any horse in history, and that would include Big Red, if we're seeing correctly.

Same deal Tale of Ekati and the rest. But, to quote the great trainer Mandella "What if he's not" What if Big Brown lacks the fitness of these other horses due to recent soft training? Might we look at BB's probable fitness level of the moment:

5/3 1.25 mile race
5/4 rest
5/5/rest
5/6 rest
5/7 rest
5/8 trot
5/9 1.5 mile gallop
5/10 1.5 mile gallop
5/11 1.5 mile gallop
5/12 rest
5/13 rest
5/14 1.5 mile gallop
5/15 1.5 mile gallop
5/16 1.5 mile gallop
5/17 2f breeze + 1 3/16 mile race (BB looked good in the Preakness. Would he have looked as good against a stronger field? Good Grief except BB they all died at the quarter pole. I'd question whether BB's really maintaining top speed fitness even at this point.)
5/18 rest
5/19 rest
5/20 rest
5/21 1 mile trot
5/22 1 mile trot
5/23 off--new quarter crack
5/24 off
5/25 off
5/26 Trot--Dutrow goes out against farrier advice, an indication of concern.
5/27 1.5 gallop
5/28 1.5 mile gallop
5/29 1.5 mile gallop
5/30 off--the exact schedule is unknown, but, it went something like this.
5/31 1.5 mile gallop
6/1 1.5 mile gallop
6/2 1.5 mile gallop
6/3 Breezed 5f in 1:00
6/4 off
6/5 trot
6/6 1.5 mile gallop
6/7 Belmont

34 days (note, the above schedule is guesswork from scattered reports)
18 days off or trot
3 days of breezing/racing--that's once every 10 days that this blog has already identified as woefully inadequate.
but, 13 days of gallop--note, BB gets a lot out of his gallops even though they're slow.

What do we have here but bare minimum level of fitness for structure, which is a concern with this horse, and performance. Horses "run down" due to weak suspensories, and given this horse's inadequate prep (partly caused by circumstances), I'd hate to think of a horse doing less than the above. With BB we have near powder puff training of late with "some" little recompense:
1. the horse gets fit galloping with his 150 lbs rider/tack.
2. The breeze/race work seems just barely enough. Combo of pre-derby work and since, there's still a level of speed fitness at the moment even if it's less than it was.
3. Dutrow times his Tues. 5f in 1:00 breeze nicely for performance this Saturday. Compare with the ill-trained Macho Again that finished up last Friday.

On the other hand:
1. BB has put on weight, and he's a big horse to begin with.
2. Its going to be a muggy 94 degrees. Big horses/hot muggy weather, ugh!
3. The horse yet to extend himself in a race or breeze.

How to evaluate the light training and questionable cardiovascular fitness of BB at this point compared to the competition. Possibly Dutrow might have/has got a problem. Continue Saturday morning.

Training:
Thurs: 6/5 the horses were off in stormy weather. Like Dutrow I timed it nicely.