More Linda Rice
Do Rice's stats change any when we analyze her workouts? I'm looking to see whether horses that have disappeared perhaps have reappeared on the work tab though they lack a recent race. I'm again looking at the same 30 horses that were in consecutive races from 1/1/08 to 1/20/08. I have checked the workouts for each horse.
The new numbers are as follows:
1. As of 12/1/08 of the 30 horses racing 1/1-1/20, eleven of them are still working or racing. (and I'm being generous here. Some last show in late October.)
2. 3 of the 11 survivors are coming off of long mid year layoffs and just getting back which is significant as their injuries were less than career enders.
3. 36.6% of the horses therefore survived year to continue working or racing, i.e. about 1/3.
Let us give L. Rice the same litany of excuses as in my Doug O'Neill interview post and therefore postulate that the injury rate resulting directly from her training is less than 66.6% for the year. The exact figure that we can fairly attribute to Linda Rice training is underterminable, but, I'll give her about the same slack I gave to O'Neill. The trouble with Rice training is that though she keeps a higher percentage going over three months, her 6 months percentage is horrendous. Over a 6 month period there is something seriously bad going on with Linda Rice training, if you look at the individual horses.
Thus, I will cut her only 10% slack for the year and say that 47% of her horses should still be going, in fairness, and that she has therefore injured about 1/2 the horses she started the year with. Significantly in Rice's case, her stable is small enough to see that most of the injured were probably career enders that will be unlikely to come back.
How does this statistic of a hard 50% injury rate per year come about in Rice's case. Next post I'll take a look at how frequently her horses breeze/race to see if we can draw any conclusions.
Training:
Mon: 12/1 Off, Weather
Tues: 12/2: Day started at 20 degrees but a strong south wind blowing 50s in today. We expect to reap benefits of less than expected precip over the weekend and gallop today. I'll post afer we do it.
The new numbers are as follows:
1. As of 12/1/08 of the 30 horses racing 1/1-1/20, eleven of them are still working or racing. (and I'm being generous here. Some last show in late October.)
2. 3 of the 11 survivors are coming off of long mid year layoffs and just getting back which is significant as their injuries were less than career enders.
3. 36.6% of the horses therefore survived year to continue working or racing, i.e. about 1/3.
Let us give L. Rice the same litany of excuses as in my Doug O'Neill interview post and therefore postulate that the injury rate resulting directly from her training is less than 66.6% for the year. The exact figure that we can fairly attribute to Linda Rice training is underterminable, but, I'll give her about the same slack I gave to O'Neill. The trouble with Rice training is that though she keeps a higher percentage going over three months, her 6 months percentage is horrendous. Over a 6 month period there is something seriously bad going on with Linda Rice training, if you look at the individual horses.
Thus, I will cut her only 10% slack for the year and say that 47% of her horses should still be going, in fairness, and that she has therefore injured about 1/2 the horses she started the year with. Significantly in Rice's case, her stable is small enough to see that most of the injured were probably career enders that will be unlikely to come back.
How does this statistic of a hard 50% injury rate per year come about in Rice's case. Next post I'll take a look at how frequently her horses breeze/race to see if we can draw any conclusions.
Training:
Mon: 12/1 Off, Weather
Tues: 12/2: Day started at 20 degrees but a strong south wind blowing 50s in today. We expect to reap benefits of less than expected precip over the weekend and gallop today. I'll post afer we do it.
posted by rather rapid at
11:28 AM
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2 Comments:
Now I wonder what the fracture resistance is for this guy in the news...Now that's riderless speed work...
Frank Hamner found himself chasing Johnny G up and down the median on I-540.
Hamner was hauling his thoroughbred horse from Ohio to his home in Heavener, Okla., after months of barrel-race training. Hamner lost control of his pickup just before 3: 15 a.m. Monday on a bridge between Greenland and West Fork.
“My pickup went sideways, and it threw the horse out,” Hamner said. “I assumed it was dead.” Hardly.
Johnny G was fired up. He dashed a mile up the highway toward the West Fork exit, then headed north again with Hamner, Arkansas State Police Cpl. James Baker and a Washington County sheriff’s office deputy chasing him.
“I’ll have to give those Arkansas people credit,” Hamner said. “They did a lot of good for me, but trying to catch a horse at 3 o’clock in the morning that’s running up and down the interstate, that’s pretty good.” Johnny G was back in the trailer, and Hamner was back on the road by 4 a.m.
KH
ya! i read it. another hair raiser.most that tow horses have a few stories. I could clog up this blog with them, lol.
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