More Nails

The inquiry is how many last 3 months and how many last through 2008. RR pre-conceived notions put to the test.


Doug O'Neill Horses:
next 12 horses that raced on 4/17/08

last raced - # of races for the year - finished

Tap It Light 6/1 six 1,1,2
Demon Inside 5/25 five, 2,3
Angus 9/1, eight, 2,2,3
Mr. Chairman still going, eight, 1,1,1,1,1,2,2,3
Souvenir Moment 4/17, one,
Themis Valentine 5/24, two, 2
Soul City Slew still going, seven, 1,2,3
Held Up 4/19, four, 2
Stormy Taters still going, nine, 1,1,1,2
Little Brenda 9/19, seven, 2,3
Shandron 5/10, two
Modification still going, 1,1,3,3,
Dumani's Gold 5/16, three, 2,3,

Summary: 13 horses for the year 2008 raced 71 times averaging 5.5 races per horse. Of the 13, as of today 3 are still racing or 23%. 5 of the 13 lasted to 7/17 which is 38%. With this group O'Neill managed more races per horse but has a greater than 50% injury rate over 3 months. None of the disappearing horses (by 7/17) has reappeared in the afternoon.

Next 12 O'Neill horses that raced 5/3/08, Derby Day (note-we omit any horse previously included)

Caspinao 5/3, 1 race, finished 3
Run Savio Run 5/22, 4,
Overt N Out still going, 7 races, 1-2
Sibuyan 5/8, 1 race
Dr. Skimming 8/11, 5 races, 1-2
Woodward Park 6/20, 3 races
Presidential Cause 9/5, 6 races, 2-3-3
Macdanio 5/9, 4 races, 2-2-3
Buzzin Mom 9/21, 9 races, 2-2-3
Wild Fleece still going, 6 races, 2-2-2-3
Grits 6/21, 4 races, 3
Harmony Creator still going, 9 races, 1-1-2-2-3

12 horses raced 59 times or 5 races per horse. 3 of the horses are still racing for 25%. On 8/3, three months after 5/3 six of the 12 were still racing or 50%.

Total Summary:
The one figure that has held up through every analysis is that Doug O'Neill injures 50% of his horses within 3 months of the initial date the horse was picked up by the analysis. This 50% figure has been right there with each of the 4 groups looked at. Here are the stats for all 4 groups:

First, how'd they do over 3 months in terms of survival. I have a larger sample here than over a whole year:
65 horses start and at the end of 3 months 32 are still going, which is 49%.

Second: how many lasted all of 2008?
37 horses looked at and 8 make it through the year: 21%

Pathetic as it looks? Should we evaluate relatively with the results of other trainers or religiously based on what we know "should" or "could" be done with different training?

Training:
Fri: 11/14 trainer implodes. A training day to forget. Off.