O'Neill Stat Compilation

Without perfect absolutely accurate info you can always argue conclusions. But note, looking at science studies on such sites as http://www.futurepundit.com/
they're always making assumptions to fill in the blanks of the various studies. Supposing and guessing seems necessary in science, and so it is here trying to decipher the work of Doug O'Neill based on incomplete info from his website. I've even inadvertently dropped a horse here and there and discovered a few errors, which are corrected by this post.

I started off with the relatively small sample size of 28 horses out of 332 that were racing 8/1/08?

The question is how many are still around?

How to answer? I'd like to know of those racing in prime racing season on 8/1, how many show works or races in the last 30 days. If we want to give more benefit of the doubt we could look at the last 40 days. I'll do both.

Surely any racing animal that shows nothing for the last 40 days has either been moved, sold or injured. I'm supposing at least 85% (see below) of those have been injured and many of those 85% will be back eventually. Also note we're talking polytrack training here which makes O'Neill's results even more a head scratcher.

Of the original horses these show nothing for the last 30 or days, see parentheses:
Coco M(34)
Swiss Current (40)
Good Shot Molly(40)
Presidential Cause(40)
Justice is Brief(40)
Invisible Edge (scratched from a recent race, otherwise nothing).
Royal Humor(40)
Raja Daja(40)
Magnific(40)
Princess Arjumand(40)
Chief Teddy Bear(40)
Sandita (40)
Roadside Rest(40)
Tismet(40)
Super Freakie(40)
Laddies Poker(30)
Mystical Plan(40--probably retired)

The following show a breeze/race in the last 30 days:
Socerers Spell (originally omitted from last post)
Rush with Thunder (ditto)
Doggie Bear
Lightening Diablo
Richer Gear
Azul Leon
Atticus Jack
A Lil Dumani
Mr. Chairman
If Not for You
Yankee Visionary

Summary:

Zero breeze/race last 40 days: 17
Zero breeze/race last 30 days: 16
Show breeze/race last 30 days: 11

Time since 8/1: 104 days
% still at it: 11/28 = 39%

Of the 17 horses that fail to show breeze/race in last 40 days, how many do we estimate were sold, retired, changed trainers or fail to show for other reasons then injury. The best info here is the unlikelihood that a racing horse would be removed in the prime racing time of August to October. There is thus probably a reason that all 17 are absent and this is injury. The severity of the injury, of course, is unknown.

A good guess would be that 85% of the 17 were removed due to injury. Thus the best guess as to those injured in the 3 months by Doug O'Neill training would be .85 x 17 = 14.45 divided by 28 = 52%. Maybe I'll revisit this in a few months to test the accuracy. Final conclusions, next post.

Training:
Mon. and Tues. 11/11 and 11/12: 48 hours of rain. We're under water again. Two days off.