More Lane's End

An intriguing race is shaping up. Will The Lane's End results have any relation to analysis of training? Only part of the training shows, and there are other factors. Shipping, Garrett Gomez rides Bittel Road, A.P. Cardinal has a lot of natural talent--watch the Sam Davis, etc.

But, give it a try, and away we go.

The West Side Bernie love is hard to fathom. Last post throws him out along with Hold Me Back for insufficient general fitness.

What about recent work from 45 days out? Several of these suffer questionable recent training and seem fairly easy to throw out based on too little or poorly spaced recent work. As a e.g.,Proceed B nicely won his last race on 2/28, but can he maintain this performance with one breeze in :50 in three weeks against much better. Doubtful? Toss Proceed B.

On the same analysis toss: Bruce N. Autumn--no chance, Dynamite Bob, Parade Clown, Jack Sprat.

7 gone. 5 left. Bittel Road has the obvious class advantage, and the videos show some talent. Although BR has only 42F for the year, 18 of those furlongs are squeezed into the last 4 weeks with very decent speeds and spacing.. Seems it would take a well trained animal to beat him.

Flying Private--we know he probably gets the most work of the bunch. This horse is a throwback to D.W. (I don't work horses) Lukas of the early 90s. But, its 2009. Breezes too slow. He'll hit the wall. (and maybe then again, he won't. F. Pegasus + Unbridled. $700,000. Scary.).

Loch Dub is cranked up, and has some bottom. A threat.

Orthodox. Ditto. Very decent training job here.

A.P. Cardinal--Ok spacing, comparable bottom, shorter distances to his recent breezing, and one of the trainers on my personal list. Can A.P.C. hold sway with ability, and 4f type works?

My intuition says A.P. Cardinal, but

by training the picks, in order, are:
Bittel Road
A.P. Cardinal
Loch Dubh
Orthodox
Flying Private

(Edit at 12:50 p.m. KC time: The Lanes End field ranked by most number of speed furlongs 45 days out:

Number of works/Horse/number of furlongs
7 Orthodox 35
6 Flying Private 32
5 Proceed B 31
5 Bittel Road 27
5 A.P. Cardinal 26
5 Loch Dubh 26
5 Jack Spratt 25
5 Hold Me Back 24
4 Parade Clown 25
4 Bruce N. Autumn 21
3 Dynamite Bob 22
3 West Side Bernie 13

Is the critical period the training 30 days out from the race? Here they are ranked for the last 30 days 2/20 to 3/21, with comments:

Number of breeze/races/Horse/Number of Furlongs/Average Speed Per Furlong last 30 days

4 Orthodox 21--12.34/f--weird breeding, primed comparatively, but is going to get outgamed.
4 Flying Private 19--12.79/f--will slow volume still work. Doubtful. Note Bill's comment last post.
4 Bittel Road 18--12.05/f good, but it's all breezing without racing.
3 Proceed B 18--12.47/f after 2/28 they just quit with this one.
3 Jack Spratt 17--12.55/f easy to throw him out.
3 Bruce N. Autumn 17--12.31/f work spacing questionable. Dale Romans.
3 Parade Clown 16--12.39/f Same as Proceed B. Trainer we like to run "against".
3 Loch Dubh 14--12.03 Nice but its all breezes.
3 Hold Me Back 15--12.51/f Why is he in here?
3 A.P. Cardinal 13--12.23/f Again all breezes, but TALENT!
3 West Side Bernie 13--12.06/f--but last work is 9 days out. Loses the benefit!
2 Dynamite Bob 14--12.89/f No chance.

Conclude. None of this training overwhelms in any way. Certainly Bittel, Road, Flying Private--if he gets that superior warm up, Orthodox, and Loch Dubh stand out somewhat, but insufficiently to ignore talent. The last 30 and 45 days training in this case remain fairly consistent with the long term training and fail to change my earlier predictions of finish in "bold" above. Would strictly handicapping this race change the selections. Possibly! Will be interesting whether they run to training or something else.

Training:
Sat. 3/21 Now the crucial 60 days out from first planned race. Weather holds. Light breezing tonight.