Who Will Win The Derby?
That time of year to stick the neck out a bit and display our Derby handicapping abilities, eh? Possibly being right is what really makes life worth living, and in this little horse racing lab we have the daily opportunity to test our abilities. I'm feeling pretty smug at the moment since I just finished picking a rather obvious long shot winner in tonight's third race at Los Alamitos at 4.5f. The 1/5 favorite carrying an extra 7 lbs was walked to the gate, came out 5 lengths in front of the field but predictably was run down by the entire field (which received more normal warm ups) when he totally locked up at the eight pole. My 5/1 long shot carrying 7 lbs less than field and receiving the best warm up got up at the wire.
It is with such impressive skills that I will now lay out my preliminary Derby choice, and I'm shocked that I've decided this year's Derby may be stacking up as much of a no-brainer as the last two. I'm equally surprised that my final deciding factor was a 5 second part of the HRTV Blood Horse video from today.
It's actually slightly more difficult this year as the February breezing schedule of several of these shows that Carl Nafzger disease is spreading quickly (and alarmingly for us small fry), and, as you'll see below, those trainers that ignore their recently sick peers do so at their peril. We'll probably see this play out in today's competitive LA Derby where you may expect several to run down Friesen Fire*.
First eliminate horses with insufficient talent. We subtract I Want Revenge who beat dogs in the Gotham, and, sadly, Papa Clem on this account. Also Friesan Fire although that horse has double grounds for elimination.
Some we can cross out solely based on who trains them. I'm figuring that if your training is unable to win with Hard Spun you're highly unlikely to do so with Friesan Fire or Old Fashion. There is, of course, that lingering question what daily slow gallops under 215 lbs. with an occasional breeze thrown in may accomplish, but, probably that was tragically asked and answered a year ago. Throw out anything trained by L. Jones.
Normally I'd eliminate Jerkens. But Jerkens has a very good horse, and is one of those Neo-Nafzgers by the breezing schedule. In the end I'm betting the Tiger will decline to change his stripes, and that Jerkens will be resting his horse into the Derby instead of breezing him, and so subtract Jerkens.
Hollendorfer? Reluctantly throw him out. I like Chocolate Candy, but that chestnut Dorf had a year or so ago that could do nothing outside Golden Gate nags. I calculating that the reason for Dorf's failures may be that he's one of those that works the heck out of them till 7 days out, pronounces them ready, and then keeps them in the closet the last 7 days before the race. Worked for Giacomo, so let's say this works once a half millennium. Throw out Dorf.
Can we suppose Plecher without steroids can win a Derby with his powder puff methods. Plecher with his intelligence is always a threat to wake up. I'm thinking next year, maybe (hopefully, for my choice)
Let's see. Who does that leave. Pamplemoose, Pioneer of the Nile, and Patena. Unable to comment on Patena as I've yet to see him. However, since Dutrow this year gets competition from the Neo-Nafzgers, throw him out. (Wild applause!)
Pamplemoose I analyze this way: Canani will most certainly screw this great horse up some way before the first Saturday in May. I already noticed P to show deteriorating musculature today. But, what if P really is being handled by Solis? P will remain the dark horse thus that could upset:
Pioneer Of The Nile. We learned how well Baffert is training of late in the Breeder's Cup. I'd doubt the rest of this year's Derby training academy at this point has the sophistication to deal with what Baffert is doing. But, what sealed the deal for me was that 5 sec. clip of Pioneer today on HRTV (Blood Horse) where he's seen bounding along at a slow gallop. Been a while since I saw a horse that bounds that well. Baffert + talent, I'm thinking, bodes trouble, and so, got to be, POTN!
*quible by noting 2 recent (uncharacteristic) Friesan Fire breezes. Today, maybe. Fades in the Derby, if he makes it.
It is with such impressive skills that I will now lay out my preliminary Derby choice, and I'm shocked that I've decided this year's Derby may be stacking up as much of a no-brainer as the last two. I'm equally surprised that my final deciding factor was a 5 second part of the HRTV Blood Horse video from today.
It's actually slightly more difficult this year as the February breezing schedule of several of these shows that Carl Nafzger disease is spreading quickly (and alarmingly for us small fry), and, as you'll see below, those trainers that ignore their recently sick peers do so at their peril. We'll probably see this play out in today's competitive LA Derby where you may expect several to run down Friesen Fire*.
First eliminate horses with insufficient talent. We subtract I Want Revenge who beat dogs in the Gotham, and, sadly, Papa Clem on this account. Also Friesan Fire although that horse has double grounds for elimination.
Some we can cross out solely based on who trains them. I'm figuring that if your training is unable to win with Hard Spun you're highly unlikely to do so with Friesan Fire or Old Fashion. There is, of course, that lingering question what daily slow gallops under 215 lbs. with an occasional breeze thrown in may accomplish, but, probably that was tragically asked and answered a year ago. Throw out anything trained by L. Jones.
Normally I'd eliminate Jerkens. But Jerkens has a very good horse, and is one of those Neo-Nafzgers by the breezing schedule. In the end I'm betting the Tiger will decline to change his stripes, and that Jerkens will be resting his horse into the Derby instead of breezing him, and so subtract Jerkens.
Hollendorfer? Reluctantly throw him out. I like Chocolate Candy, but that chestnut Dorf had a year or so ago that could do nothing outside Golden Gate nags. I calculating that the reason for Dorf's failures may be that he's one of those that works the heck out of them till 7 days out, pronounces them ready, and then keeps them in the closet the last 7 days before the race. Worked for Giacomo, so let's say this works once a half millennium. Throw out Dorf.
Can we suppose Plecher without steroids can win a Derby with his powder puff methods. Plecher with his intelligence is always a threat to wake up. I'm thinking next year, maybe (hopefully, for my choice)
Let's see. Who does that leave. Pamplemoose, Pioneer of the Nile, and Patena. Unable to comment on Patena as I've yet to see him. However, since Dutrow this year gets competition from the Neo-Nafzgers, throw him out. (Wild applause!)
Pamplemoose I analyze this way: Canani will most certainly screw this great horse up some way before the first Saturday in May. I already noticed P to show deteriorating musculature today. But, what if P really is being handled by Solis? P will remain the dark horse thus that could upset:
Pioneer Of The Nile. We learned how well Baffert is training of late in the Breeder's Cup. I'd doubt the rest of this year's Derby training academy at this point has the sophistication to deal with what Baffert is doing. But, what sealed the deal for me was that 5 sec. clip of Pioneer today on HRTV (Blood Horse) where he's seen bounding along at a slow gallop. Been a while since I saw a horse that bounds that well. Baffert + talent, I'm thinking, bodes trouble, and so, got to be, POTN!
*quible by noting 2 recent (uncharacteristic) Friesan Fire breezes. Today, maybe. Fades in the Derby, if he makes it.
posted by rather rapid at
10:54 PM
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2 Comments:
jeez i guess you can throw out your''don't bet on larry'' theory after fresian fire cooked them all in the la derby..old fashioned lost but was still way ahead of the field after pretty good fractions..ehat say you now??are you insinuating that jones training killed eight belles? that is pretty lame.
txs. for your comment. 8 Belles training is documented in posts dated 4/26, 4/27 and 4/29/08. Friesan Fire looked terrific Saturday!
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