Narrowing The Derby

Almost that time! This post, who should be elsewhere besides the winners circle May 2, RR version.

(Edit note: videos now up on KY Derby website. The Dubai horses looking good!)Missing those TBTimes videos from a year ago, but the extensive workout notes help! With what's available so far can we begin to ferret out horses and trainers probably short of being up to snuff?

My early throw outs.

1. Quality Road. Man among boys. Size, speed, strength, ground eating efficient stride. What more in a Derby horse beyond maybe the absolutely perfect specimen as Big Brown before the weight gain? + Jimmie Jerkens, from black hole of NY training (see Mott) seems to have done a good job with a decent work tab!
The Reason For The Scratch: the several Jerkens videos serve as red flags with that deer in the headlights look and simplistic training blather. Non-athlete trainer. Question if J gets all this. Quarter cracks symptomatic of deeper problems. Qcs caused by 1. turn downs (branches of hind shoes turned down producing pressure at the quarters--see BB 2008.)--and possibly explain QR racing in Fl. instead of NY, or more likely: 2. questionable shoeing practice--nails driven incorrectly at an angle (instead of perpendicular) at the quarters results in nail pressure and shoe imbalance. We have qcs front and hind so unlikely it's turn downs and likely its negligent shoeing, and hence training. Do we get qc if we know (if we know what we are doing) right before the KY Derby?????? Trainer looking over his shoer's shoulders, controlling the variables, not. QR to hang in the stretch, a bold (scary) prediction.

2. I Want Revenge: decent looker beating pigs. Fast and he's been working. The comparative work tab among horses needs to be looked at, but Revenge a cut below the best here?
Reason for the scratch: Jeff Mullins.

3. Mr. Hot Stuff: those nice Susan Casner You Tubes once again as with the bro complete with music but showing Eion Harty, as a seeming slow learner. Like Colonel John, Mr. HS lacks speed and needs speed work, and yet videos show the exact Harty workouts that failed a year ago.

4. Flying Private: latest Wayne (I don't work horses) Lukas poster boy for1990s training. It's 2009 Wayne + how far the horse gallops does matter. (see latest ludicrous Lukas quote.)

5. Hold Me Back: Ditto as Flying Private. Mott was a great trainer, in the '90s. One breeze Blue Grass to Derby. Please. A shame!

6. General Quarters: egregious training negligence according to the PPs.

7. Desert Part/Regal Ransom: Sheik (alarmingly) catching onto things? These have been working fast, yet RR has questions about Saheed Bin S____, and the horses seem a cut below. Amazing what 2 million smackers buys these days.

8. Win Willy: Trainer out to lunch. Too bad!

9. Square Eddie: Hope he makes it around. See blog, fall 2008 on this trainer.

10. West Side Bernie: trainer rides the horse, under the radar work possibly. What shows though, an under worked under talented animal.

11. Summer Bird: I once owned a Jaraman horse. Dr. from Fl. The guy's been around. Tim Ice. Typical decent training job to first race (all down hill from there).

That's the scrap heap. Interesting who's left!