Coolemore Lexington Stakes

(Blog condolences to the connections of Tin Cup Chalice. Having barely dodged a few headers myself on the race track, I can only imagine.)

Square Eddie(Smart Strike--El Gran Senor) will supposedly take the Lexington on "class". I did once own a classy filly closely related to El Gran Senor(by Northern Dancer), and acknowledge Smart Strike as a significant sire. Square Eddie seems to have class, if genetics can provide.

This post will deal strictly with performance instead of the George Washington type implications here based on this high injury rate outfit entering this horse off three breezes after a recent stress fracture. This is the sort of thing that entry rules need to prevent, and an interesting test for former Kansas State Vet, now KY State vet Bryce Peckam. Should SE make it to the Derby, I've seen Peckam scratch 'em for less.

Number of breeze/races since 12/31--horse--number of speed furlongs for the year--Trainer

16 Omniscient 84 Assmussen

14 Jeranimo 80 Michael Pender

14 Convervative 72 McGaughey

13 El Crespo 69 George Arnold

12 Masala 65 Plecher

11 Parade Clown 62 Katherine Ball

11 Advice 58 Plecher

11 His Greatness 62

12 Brave Victory 53 Zito

10 Hull 52 Dale Romans

9 Pitched Perfectly 49 Tagg (Contessa)

7 Square Eddie 38 O'Neil

Square Eddie has less than 1/2 the speed work for the year than the top horse and significantly less then all the field but Pitched Perfectly, who was injured during March.

since 2/26

7 Omniscient 37

6 El Crespo 33

6 Jeranimo 32

5 Parade Clown 30

5 Brave Victory 28

5 Masala 26

5 Conservative 26

4 Advice 32

4 His Greatness 31

4 Hull 20

4 Square Eddie 19

3 Pitched Perfectlyy 14 (hurt in early March)

SE shows half the work of the top horse and much less than all below His Greatness.

Can lesser horses beat this sort of SE training? RR guesses in the affirmative. Possibly more handicapping here before post time. Doug O'Neil training previously highlighted, starting here:

http://ratherrapid.blogspot.com/2008/10/doug-oneil.html

(D. O'Neil posts appear 9/16/08 to 10/22/08.)