Toyota Blue Grass

Works/furlongs analysis with comments. A year ago training analysis was useful to separate the men from the boys and girls. This year analysis shows a lot of similar training, and is less useful without considering other variables. Note some surprises below, though, that we might want to take note of.

1. Speed work since 12/30 to indicate "foundation".

Number of breeze/races--horse--number of speed furlongs:

14 Massone--90
? Mafaaz--? we know Gosden (from BC comments) works horses. Presume this one also.
12 Join In The Dance--63
11 Loch Dub--60
10 Patena--67
10 Theregosjojo--59
9 Terrain--46
9 Hold Me Back--38
9 Charitable Man--38
8 General Quarters--49
8 Cliffy's Future--46

2. Speed work since 2/28 (45 days pre-race) to indicate "race fitness". All else being equal we'd expect the horses near the top of the list to be competitive. In a close race, fitness and bottom for the year might come into play:

number of breeze/races--horse--number of speed furlongs

6 Massone--41
5 Hold Me Back--39 Funny how the cream rises to the top here.
? Mafaaz--? Are they seriously racing, or just running?
5 Theregosjojo--Note recent training on this one. Set up? Could be.
5 Join In The Dance--29
5 Loch Dubh 27--I handicapped Oaklawn race with Jeff Talley. Same inexplicable non-performance.
6 Charitable Man--28 Steadily working but few furlongs and zero racing. Demoted.
4 Patena--29
4 Terrain--24
4 General Quarters 23
3 Cliffy's Future--17 Believe we saw the Darrin Miller act at 17 lengths behind Street Sense in 2007 Derby. Pass.

Once again, the (seemingly) weaker horses have less works. How to handicap?

First, we throw out the RR least favorite trainers who habitually put in questionable training jobs--Anything by McPeek or McGlaughlin is out, although I expect Theregosjojo to show prominently based on unusual "recent" work.

Second: Plecher and Mott, and especially Mott will have to show me something before we plunk down another RR red cent on their horses. (Oh...wait--Mott has the most talented horse, ALTHOUGH, notice that Hold Me Back has but one work in the last 20 days. Ripe for an upset, possibly?

Third: Might we consider a wager on Massone???

Interesting race that I may handicap closely and post RR picks before post time.