Arkansas Derby

(Edit: This post refers to the training of Old Fashion who suffered a knee fracture. The post will remain unchanged with a clarification regarding the training in the post that follows.)

1. Speed furlongs since 12/29

15 Papa Clem 86
14 Flying Private 83
14 Captain Cherokee 76
12 Ziegfeld 66
11 Danger To Society 64
10 Poltergeist 59
10 Old Fashion 55
9 Win Willy 45
7 Flat Out 45
7 Summer Bird 38

2. Speedwork/furlongs since 2/27 (last 45 days):

7 Papa Clem 42 (Whittingham training/Stute training--subtle difference?)
6 Captain Cherokee 33 (Asmussen!)
6 Danger To Society 31 (without races, though!)
5 Siegfeld 27
5 Flying Private 26 (DW-I don't work horses-Lukas gives his colt a :35.1 3 days out.)
5 Win Willy 24
4 Old Fashion 24
4 Poltergeist 23
3 Flat Out 19
3 Summer Bird 19

Where does work and training end and talent begin in terms of race performance? This race seems a good laboratory for the question. Unlike the Blue Grass, all these trainers have a reason to win the race.

The recent workers here are Papa Clem and Danger To Society, but move Flying Private in with that group based on his work for the year. Very decent job seemingly by Lukas to peak his horse for this race.

Thus, the horses with clearly superior training:

Papa Clem
Flying Private
Danger To Society

But, wait! One more horse deserves consideration for training. We know that Larry Jones gallops his almost every day under 200+ lbs. Jones is sparse on the public work tab, but inexplicably gets performances indicating work under the radar. + the talented Old Fashioned received logical timed works up to the race. Move him in with those with superior training. So:

Papa Clem
Flying Private
Danger To Society
Old Fashioned

Despite other some decent training efforts, particularly by Captain Cherokee, the Asmussen horse, (and he'll be against others with equal or better), there's probably a talent gap in the Arkansas Derby limiting the possibilities to the above 4 and Win Willy.

Win Willy looks like a terrific horse, but, look at his line closely and see some serious training deficiencies. Way to much gapping in those works for me + insufficient long work of late. They tuned him up with a :48.1 3 days out. But, best I can do is make Win Willy the hedge horse. There's plenty of evidence of questionable training. Probably he'll fade.

And, there's pedigree, of course. Why does Jeff Siegel think Old Fashion, an Unbridled Song horse, is without pedigree to get the distance? Puzzling.

Go with the talent here:

Old Fashioned
Flying Private
Papa Clem--conditioning instead of talent!
Win Willy

Easy superfecta box?

(Edit 4:44 pm: just mistimed betting on the Blue Grass. The sister put for me $10 on Papa Clem to show and a $2 superfecta: Old Fashion, Flying Private, Papa Clem, Win Willy.)