Blue Grass Picks

Below are speed works/furlongs since 2/28.

6 Massone--41
5 Hold Me Back--39 Funny how the cream rises to the top here.
? Mafaaz--? Are they seriously racing, or just running?
5 Theregosjojo--32 Note recent training on this one. Set up? Could be.
5 Join In The Dance--29
5 Loch Dubh 27--I handicapped Oaklawn race with Jeff Talley. Same inexplicable non-performance.
6 Charitable Man--28 Steadily working but few furlongs and zero racing. Demoted.
4 Patena--29
4 Terrain--24
4 General Quarters 23
3 Cliffy's Future--17 Believe we saw the Darrin Miller act at 17 lengths behind Street Sense in 2007 Derby. Pass.

There are questions for me whether Mafaaz and Hold Me Back are in this to win or to get in a good run with view to peaking in the Derby on the flawed view imo that the horse will have trouble recovering from a hard race, or, perhaps that they'll be unable to do the hard work they believe necessary right before Derby time. Thus, will either horse be pressed?

Others in the field imo have zero chance: Cliffy, G. Quarters, Terrain, Loch Dub, primarily due to comparitive deficiencies in their handling/training.

This leaves as interesting horses: Charitable Man, Theregosjojo, Join In The Dance, Patena, and Massone.

Is there any doubt that Charitable man will be hopped on steroids? I'm confident enough to publish that. Thus, the horse will be the dangerous unknown quantity. Given my low opinion of K. McGlaughlin training, I'm throwing him out, nevertheless.

Then there is the Patena-Join In The Dance thing where I give Patena the slight advantage due to polytrack experience. Both these trainers will be "trying", so this would be interesting.

Theregosjojo is likely to be the most conditioned horse in the race but that he's trained by McPeek. I am 100% convinced that McPeek is without a clue, and something will trip this horse up. I may have to eat those words given the recent (and rare for McPeek) conditioning, but am glad to take the risk.

To bet on Massone you have to pick a horse that took 7 races to break his maiden. You also consider he finished 2d barely to Chocolate Candy in the El Camino, and, significantly, is trained by Ron McAnally, the superior trainer in this field.

There are some other concerns. Only Charitable Man and Join In The Dance have shown any speed on a speed favoring track. Hold Me Back as a specimen might overcome that typical Mott non-training, although unlike the last two years Mott seems to have figured out the concept of the 5f (instead of 4f) breeze.

Order of finish by groups, as they finish in clumps. I avoid anything but show betting on this toss up sort of race with Patena and Cliffy in any extended exotics.

Massone
Theregosjojo
Hold Me Back
Mafaaz

Patena
Join In The Dance
Charitable Man--steroids

Cliffy
Terrain
GQ
Loch Dub