Doug O'Neill

Suddenly we have some more guinea pigs txs to the KH comment last post. Though aware, I'd forgotten the trainer websites.

And so, I'll take a look at a few of these as part of the population studies in looking at breezing frequency/injury prevention relationship, a bit tedious perhaps, but also indicative of the importance I attached to frequency of fast work.

A word about my opinions. I'll try as much as possible to mute the editorial comments. This is science supposedly, and each make their own judgments. Occasionally my praise or disdain will seep through usually because the available evidence is overwhelming.

And so, without further adieu, Doug O'Neil. With each one I'll assume information on their websites has been entered correctly and comprehensively. This task is visually challenging, and I may inadvertently missed one here or there. However, I'm without a doubt we get the general picture. We additionally have the quandary of small sample. Yet, given the number of horses looked at, again, believe we can draw conclusions.

This post I'll simply list the horses, and conclude on O'Neil next post. This is the trainer who was just given a crack two year old Square Eddie by his old client Paul Reddam. Also, I forgot I was looking at polytrack, whereas all my assumptions are for dirt. Nevertheless, believe you'll notice the problems.

I looked at 28 O'Neil horses in detail covering the period 8/15-10/15. The racing stats are available for the whole period but the work stats are available only for one month 9/15-10/15.
And please note I chose a RANDOM SAMPLE. I refrained from picking and choosing and simply commenced with the first 24 horses that fit the parameters that began racing 8/15, i.e. the first 24 in a row.

I'd initially started with 4 horses I just picked out and noticed most were not racing. I then decided to look only at racing horses on the premise that most trainers do a decent job preparing for the first race. After racing begins, there's the rub. So, racing horses only. After doing about 10 racers in August I noticed most were 2 year olds or maidens. This also might skew things, and so for the last 10 I looked only at older winners to see how they fared.

I documented each race and work that shows over the period. Here's what I was looking for:
1. Starting 8/15 for the racers--how many of them were still working/racing by 10/15. What thus is the % that probably were injured on the polytrack.
2. How frequently does O'Neil breeze/race. This comes across fairly clearly and the answer is "seldom". The little success O'Neil sees are from horses he tends to work more.

It is unnecessary for you to look in detail at all these horses. But, if you do, you'll see the same patterns that I'll detail next post.

Commencing with racers 8/15/08 to 8/27/08 we follow them through to 10/15/08, works and races. Most races/works are at Delmar and Santa Anita with an occasional at Fairplex and one at Saratoga for a stakes--Mystical Plan--who interestingly and unsurprisingly after she's moved to the dirt is not heard from again.

Doggie Bear:
8/15 Race 8th MC 6f
9/8 49.2
9/14 Race 2d (at Fairplex) MC 6.5f
9/27 Breeze 47.8
10/4 1:08
10/11 Race 8th in MSw 6.5f

Coco M
8/16 Race 5th in 2yr. 5.5f Msw
9/7 Race 4th in Msw 6f Fairplex
9/20 :50
9/27 4f in :50
10/9 Race 8th in a 1 M MC.
Does survive though.

Swiss Current
8/17 Race 5th Soloma Beach Hc 1 mile
8/22 Race4th in TOC Hc 1 3/8 M
9/13 1:05
9/21 Race 2d in a Fairplex Hc at 1 1/16
9/25 6f in 1:16.6 (only post breeze race in 4-8 days I found.) Nothing in next 20 days though.
hmm.

Good Shot Molly
8/15 Race 1st in a 5.5f MC
Disappears thereafter--presume injury

Presidential Cause
8/16 Race 3rd in 6.5 claimer
9/5 Race 2nd in Fairplex 6.5 claimer
Disappears. Presume Injury #2

Justice is Brief
8/16 Race 1st in 1 1/16 allowance
Disapparance #3

Invisible Edge
8/17 Race 9th in 2yr 5.5 MC
9/10 :48
9/17 Race 1st in Fairplex MC
10/5 35.4
10/9 5th in 6f Starter Allowance

Yankee Visionary
8/17 Race 4th 7f claiming
9/5 Scratched
9/17 50.4 The horse now has 1 work in a month.
9/24 48.6
10/1 Race 5th in 6.5f claiming.

Royal Humor
8/17 Race 4th in 6f Msw
9/1 Race 5th in Msw
9/20 :50
Gone

Raja Daja
8/17 Race 4th in 5f MC
9/52.6
9/17 Race 5th in 6f MC
Gone

If Not For You
8/18 Race 4th in 6f MC
9/12 Race 3rd in 6f MC at Fairplex
10/2 48.8
10/12 Race 3rd in 7f

Lightening Diablo
8/18 Race 6th in 6f Starter Allowance
9/10 52.4
9/19 Race 3rd in 6f claiming
10/5 49.8
10/12 Race 9th in 6f claiming
made it through somehow

Magnific
8/18 Race 4th in Msw
9/3 :48
Gone

Rush With Thunder
8/18 Race 1st in 1M claiming
9/1 Race 5th in 1 mile claiming
9/17 4f in 49.6
9/24 Race 10th in 7f claiming

Princess Arjumand
8/20 1:03.2 (that's what it says)
8/21 Race 7th in 6.5f claiming
Gone

Socerers Spell
8/16 50.8
8/23 Race 9th in 6.5f claiming.
9/10 53.8
9/17 4f in 50.8
9/26 Race 4th in 6f claiming
10/16 1:03.2

Chief Teddy Bear
8/23 Race 8th in 4.5f claiming
9/10 51.6
9/17 4f in 47.4
9/24 Race 12th in 6.5f claiming

Sandita
8/23 Race 4th in 6.5 claimer
9/8 Race 2nd in 6.5 claimer
Gone

Mistical Plan
8/24 Race 6th in Balerina Stakes at Saratoga
Gone

Roadside Rest
8/24 Race 3rd in 6f Starter Allowance
9/17 4f in 49.8
9/25 Race 7th in 1 1/16 allowance
nothing in next 20 days

A Lil Dumani
8/17 46.8
8/24 Race 6th in 6f allowance
9/13 50.8
9/20 101.4
9/27 49.6
10/2 Race 1st Starter allowance

Mr. Chairman
8/24 Race 1st 6f allowance
9/21 49.8
9/28 47.9
10/5 Race 1st CA Sprint

Tismet
8/20 1:13.6
8/27 Race 3rd in 1 M claimer
Gone.

Super Freaky
8/28 Race 2d in 1M stake
9/13 48.6
9/20 1:00.6
nothing in next 25 days

Here are the 1st 4 I looked at, but, I'd specifically picked these out:

Atticus Jack
8/20 37.4
8/27 34.8
9/1 49.2
9/8 50.2
9/15 101.4
9/22 59.8
9/29 :59.4
10/5 59.6
10/13 Race 1st in 2yr. maiden claiming.


Laddies Poker
9/3 :48
9:10 1:03.2
9/17 101.4
9/25 1:16.6
10/5 113.6
10/13 Race 9th in 1 mile allowance

Richer Gear
8/17 1:01
8/30 Race 6th in Fairplex 5f allowance
9/18 Race 8th in 6.5f allowance
10/6 36.6
10/13 Race 12th in 5.5f allowance

Azul Leon
8/31 48.8
9/14 49.8
9/21 102.6
9/28 Race 6th in Norfolk.

Training
Wed. 10/16: We take our 2d day in a row off in mud. Chalk this one up to RR. Probably should have trotted under tack.