Handicapping The BC Classic

It is good to see that each horse has a decent volume of work. The 2009 Classic is without the likes of K. McGlaughlin, Lukas, Dallas Stewart, Reade Baker and that myriad of trainers that endanger their horses with insufficient work. We additionally have the pro-ride surface, and so, I am encouraged that all will come back safe. The obvious worry in terms of injury is, once again, Rip Van Winkle and his trainer Aidan O'Brien.

I have spent very little time on this, and so, please take my "handicapping" with a grain of salt. Since this is the one race I will watch with interest, I do want to take a "position", and so will now think my way through.

1. Horses that are without any chance because of who trains them: Mine That Bird, Einstein, Rip Van Winkle (ya, they can take a great horse and win the turf against weak competition. what have they ever done in the Classic?), and (probably) Colonel John and Gio Ponti. Each of these trainers has an identifiable weakness ranging from being without a clue as to what they are doing to lack of attention to detail, to being game hunters while training animals. Hopefully this will be correct that you need to have all your stuff together to win a true Championship Race.

2. Horses that probably lack the talent: Mostly what we've seen in the BC Classic is that truly talented horses step up. Falling a bit short in this dept.: Richard's Kid and Giralamo, although a 1:33 mile which he ran in the Jerome is nothing to sneeze at. I think the time had to do with the surface that day, but we'll see. Awesome Gem probably is a sentimental entry.

3. The contenders: Zenyata, Twice Over, Summer Bird, Regal Ransom, Quality Road. How to separate this group?

a) any particularly good training jobs? Twice Over has 3 wins at 1.25 miles or more since 9/9/09. If you're going to train for the BC Classic, that certainly is one way to do it! Summer Bird is the beneficiary to decent training done consistently for month after month. There's little that stands out otherwise at my brief glance, which brings me to:

b) Whose got the talent--I'd think it takes exceptional training to beat a decently trained but talented horse. Most of these have trained decently, and therefore, I might think that talent will out here. Who are they?

Regal Ransom: That was a wow race by Regal Ransom and Godolphin has reverted over the year from an outfit without a clue to more and more showing they are learning what it takes. Fear this horse I think more than Quality Road and his powder puff trainer.

Rip Van Winkle: is definitely fast if you watch his races. If he's "on" he could be dangerous. I doubt his trainer has enough sense to have him "on". Scratch.

Colonel John: My favorite, but this horse carries a lot of weight over 1.25 miles. Eoin Harty has time and again found a way to screw things up, but mainly and probably the exercise protocol fails to fit the horse.

Twice Over: This horse can run.

Zenyatta: Shirreffs and Eoin Harty are blood brothers in terms of "something missing" when it comes to athletics. But, this filly really showed some stuff in that last breeze. My best guess--I think she will be insufficiently "tight" due to her training. Thus, my guess is that both Z and her jock will be intimidated somewhere in the race.

Nice race with a competitive field though I'm less blown away by the overall talent here than some. More potential stars here than actual. But, the winner probably will have proved something.

RR Picks:
Twice Over
Regal Ransom
Summer Bird