Handicapping 2010 Derby?

Where to begin? By May 1, to be competitive, should a horse have 4 published works/races for each month of 2010? That would be 16. Below, a look at the numbers. At first glance there's very little to separate the field in terms of numbers of work, although our usual suspect trainers bring up the back end. Is it a sign of racing's demise that Rascal Flatts is singing the anthem? Good grief.

American Lion 17 works/races

Awesome Act foreign. unknown but looks to be every 7 day worker.

Backtalk: 14

Conveyance: 18

Deans Kitten: 15

Discreetly Mine: 14

Dublin: 15

Homeboykris: 14

Ice Box: 13

Jackson Bend: 13

Line of David: 16

Lookin At Lucky: 14

Make Music For Me: 16

Mission Impazile: 14

Noble's Promise: 11

Paddy O Prado: 12

Sidney's Candy: 15

Stately Victor: 15

Super Saver: 12