Belmont Day

(Edit selections at 10 MTP. I've just watched 30 min of video on my Twin Spires Account. What mostly sticks out is First Dude. 1. He's grown substantially since his early year races. 2. He's improved steadily almost with each and every race. 3. They shifted strategy in the Preakness from running back at 3rd or 4th to going to the lead and avoiding traffic where this great big horse was constantly compromised. 4. As you'd expect from the training, the horse's action freezes in the stretch. This horse has substantial talent and is stands out on the vids. Will I select him to win? Again, injury is a fear, but, this horse is on top of his game. He should take this crowd, possibly with ease--the other thing that shows on the vids is that Game on Dude probably is a Grade II horse. Based on intuition for what it's worth, have to put my $2.00 on First Dude to win. Going to the farm now, and watch later.)

Make Music For Me will be one of those running at the end. There's a NY Times piece this morning featuring Alexis Barba and her training roots that go back to Eddie Gregson and Charlie Whittingham.

So, is she a Whittingham style trainer? Or, is she a typical woman trainer, more groomer than conditioner? The PPs indicate somewhere in between. MMFM has the most speed work in this field-- since March 1, 13 speed works. That's 13 in 97 days or 1 speed work every 7.5 days, which is decent.

But, ok, she does the speed work, does she also do the slow galloping? Or does she, as every other female trainer I've ever witnessed, give a breeze and then give 4 days off because she thinks the horse is tired? With Barba, after listening to her interviews, and guessing, it's probably somewhere in between with her. The red flag is that there's little to think this lady is a rigorous conditioning type trainer al la Whittingham based on the PPs, nor anything in her record to indicate such.

Thus, I'd think Ms. Barba has done a decent job with this horse, but, avoid getting overwhelmed by her training. Wild guess that the horse likely will be in there but odds are he'll be run down due specifically to lack of detail. The lady is 57 years old training horses. I wish her the best of luck!

So, who will run down MMFM? This is a head scratcher. You put together 12 conventional trainers one of 'em has got to win. The horse with the least number of works since March 1 is First Dude with 8. But, most of those have been squeezed in of late. This sort of work schedule bodes to recent conditioning and regrettably also to injury in such a big horse. I'm eliminating FD.

Given the similarities in training, probably we should look to talent here. Fly Down's record is an eye catcher. Drosselmeyer's is superior, as is Ice Box of late. Stately Victor is a man among boys. Can we trust Michael Maker to train? Probably not. Margolis's horse? Throw out because it's Margolis, and, pretty much the same with Interactif.

I also like to look at whose riding in terms of mount selection. Garrett Gomez on Spangled Star trained by Dutrow. Hmmm. Dutrow's Spangled Star has 9 works since April 1 when he arrived in that barn. Seems another that should be running at the end. I noticed Mike Smith on Drosselmeyer.

That's were I'll stop with this superficial look. I will make an intuitive selection. I think several inferior horses will be running at the end along with some of the talented horses. The talent:

Ice Box--track is made for a lightly built horse like this.

Fly Down

Stately Victor

First Dude, but I've eliminated him.

The runners at the end:

Spangled Star

MMFM

Drosselmeyer

Game On Dude

I am forced to look at video of the Dwyer (doing it). Weak race. Stopped horses and Fly Down. Drosselmeyer unimpressive. I am forced to look at the Lone Star Derby.

(doing it). Game On Dude is going to run today. Did Baffert get him to Belmont on time? Probably not.

Nevertheless, and taking a flyer on this. Order of finish: Game On Dude, Stately Victor, MMFM.