Wednesday, November 03, 2010

BC IIII

Quality Road as a foal looking like any other, sort of of! He's got legs!
We look at Plecher's pre-BC training for QR, last post, with the question has fracture resistance (FR) been achieved for the horse, and, if so, how does this square with Plecher's high injury rate? An explanation follows to be more carefully honed after the BC!
The first thing we recognize is that like chief competitor Zenyatta, QR has been at it a long time. First with questionably competent Jimmie Jerkens who managed to win over none other than Plecher and Dunkirk in the 2009 Florida Derby. And thereafter the horse was put into the Plecher barn with it's highly consistent program.
For 2010 QR first raced 1/3/10 at Gulfstream, and has been at it ever since. We'd hardly begrude this horse 2-3 weeks off after certain of his races, and, other than Plecher periods off from speed work, it looks as if the horse has been in training the whole year.
As previously noted, Plecher training qualifies for FR on the following parameters:
distance of the breeze--it is always at least 4f or more
speed of breeze--is it always at least 12.5 sec/f
frequency--it is always more frequent than 8 days apart.
The catch with the "frequency" aspect is those 2-3 weeks off from speed work. Frequency over time needs to be calculated in terms of averages. The Plecher "off periods" increase his average frequency between speed work, and hence, possibly, Plecher's injury rate problem.
Next, take note that though Plecher training satisfies each FR parameters, it does so barely. Dunkirk was a particular victim of this previously identified on the blog.
QR, unlike Dunkirk, has lasted well over a year, been on the program almost two years, and was in the more strenuous program of Jimmie Jerkens before that. I've speculated if, thus, we manage to keep the horse healthy and "in training" over 12 months, we may indeed achieve FR even though the training is on the bare edge of minimums for FR. A closer look at QR in this sense, next post.
QR initially was trained by Jimmie Jerkens, and a review of the problems with QR under JJ appears here:
Training:
Tues. 10/2: Rod shoeing takes longer than expected. We wind up trotting for 10 min. in the dark.

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