The Case Of ArchArchArch

An accidental forest fire started by Mephistopheles has just taken the life of an old couple that Faust had meant (fully intended) to live. Faust at midnight is on the balcony of his palace watching the remnants of this fire knowing the ancient pair were dead:

"The stars withdraw their gleam and wink, the fiery blazes dwindle, sink. Still hither fanned by vagrant draft, a veil of smoke and vapor waft.

Too rashly bid, too swiftly done,

What wanders here of shadows sprung?"(Goethe)

Bears repeating:

"Too rashly bid, too swiftly done..."

With our horses we tread that fine line of needing to be perfect. ArchArchArch was entered into the Derby, obviously was injured and somehow made it to the finish line averting another gigantic disaster for horse racing. I prefer to think of this Derby as mere postponement. If they fail to institute some reliable checks for TV races another 8Belles/Barbaro et all will be inevitable--pre race scientific diagnosis/training standards for entry.

In the case of ArchArchArch we'll never know of course if the horse was entered with a developing stress fracture on the condylar aspect of his lower cannon bone. Looking at everything I think it's probable that he was, and this very possibly should have been caught pre-race.

The evidence: the horse collapsed on his front leg--by the NBC video--his very first step out of the gate. Coincidence? I think not. But, there are further clues. Here is the training of AAA in the 10 days before the Derby. Take a look and analyze what is wrong with this picture:

Fri. :59.4

Sat. Off

Sun 1.5 mile G

M 1.5 mile G

T. :52 in the slop--and they said they started 2m lick around 5f pole, then with gallop out.

W. 1.5 mile G

T.1.5 m G

F 1.5m G--trainer announced "he looked good". Famous last words.

S: Race

7 straight training events without rest after one day off from a :59.4, and much of this over a hard wet rolled track. Consider

1. Had the horse been brought up to this level of galloping OR was this a burst of training enthusiasm for the Derby. I think the latter. AAA finished the Ark. Derby very rubber legged--take a look at the post race video--probably conditioned better than that field, but doubtful the sort of constant pre-derby week galloping as above. "never surprise"--Tom Ivers.

2. For a conventionally trained horse, which I am without doubt AAA was, after his Fri of :59.4 (and am forgetting if that was a sloppy track), he gallops--instead of trots--two days later. Note that Animal Kingdom and several others only trot the second day after a breeze. For a lightly trained, conventionally trained horse, keeping pressure off the cannon bones on day #2 after a fast breeze probably permits more knitting together of any bone cells that may have been separated after the breeze. Yet, AAA likely would survive this gallop but for what comes next.

3. They go right on galloping Mon. If there was a developing fracture line or even a weak spot in the condylar aspect where there was a little water developing between slightly separated bone cells--this area receives no rest on Mon. Both the Sun and Mon gallops were on a hardened rolled wet track.

4. Tues: :52 in a 5f work at 2m clip, front cannons slamming into the hard wet rolled track. If there was even a slightly developing weak spot this work would have widened it at the nano level.

5. Here is the big big error--no rest for AAA this day. Right back out for a 1.5 mg over what probably was a heavier pulling type surface that I think was drying by Wed.

6. Thurs. and Fri right back out. i.e. 6 straight days of galloping without rest, race tomorrow.

My thought has always been that you need to rest those cannons after 3 days of being out there, regardless off what you do. If you then decide to intersperse 2 speed works 4 days apart seems to me you especially need to provide appropriate off time. Never happened with AAA.

Our sport of horse racing can be very unforgiving. I am fairly sure such training errors are replete, most of the time the horses survive, but here the Q: the trainer of AAA, good old fellow that he is, exceeded common sense in the pre-Derby training--too rashly bid, too swiftly done--or, of course, it all might have been bad luck. I think the horse was injured going in and they failed to catch it, and possibly yet another lesson hopefully learned. Seems to me you have to do "enough" and also avoid doing "too much".

Training:

Mon. 5/9 off after a 3 day cycle.