Tuesday, May 01, 2012

More Derby

Yet to see any Derby vids. Almost zero work vids. Vids of U. Rags and Creative Cause bathing, however. Where's Lenny Schulman this morning?  Overslept, possibly? Nice review as usual by Haskins.

The blogger still avoiding any handicapping work.  Publish a few brief impressions.  The vid of Creative Cause shows both questionable husbandry and questionable training.  Fairly usual the last two decades to see the latter.  Questionable husbandry I rarely have seen in a Derby horse.  Creative Cause is off the board.  I have some fairly strong fear of those white legs on Union Rags.  Talent a lot of time trumps training in the Derby.  UR a definite contender on appearance and also that last work.

Anybody stand out?  Bodemeister, I am just getting this feeling that in addition to being a grossly over bet favorite that somebody is going to run that horse down.  Intuition mostly.  Listened to the Zyat vid this morn (the owner) and he related--fastest horse, best pedigree, best training, best trainer. All well and good.  My take was always--the best for the horse, rider, trainer, vet, farrier--then we can blame the performance on the horse.

Who will run him down?  As noted, I've paid little attention this year. However, when u've been training as long as I have there's some significant pattern recognition and generally I can spot a horse sitting on a big race a mile away on about a 5 second clip, which, given the great coverage this year, is about what we get.  Jill Byrne's April 30 summary has a flash of I'll Have Another Galloping.  One brief view and it comes together.  The horse runs away every gallop similar to my own Groovin' Wind as a youngster.  They get enormously fit that way the problem being it's also dangerous and can break the horse down.  Too bad as to who is the trainer.  However, there's hardly a law that a trainer is unable to change his stripes.  From what shows I'll Have Another has a very decent training job, looks the part, gallops the part, and hey, I know about those horses with the Arch broodmare sires.  Think such famous horses as and Rollin Rodney and Uncle Mo.  I have a little idea of what those sorts do eyeball to eyeball.  That's ur Bodemeister upset candidate from what I see to date.

check out 4/30 vid:

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/news/videos

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