Saturday, May 26, 2012

O'Neill Behind The Eight Ball (continued)

When u're there on the back stretch daily preparing a horse for a race, there are some worries (as I am recalling--and that's for preparing for the weekend race at Eureka Downs)  What  worries, and do they magnify with a TC candidate?

Confide that Doug O'Neill has a lot to worry given his history. 
There's old Doug O'Neill and (apparently) the new one.  O'Neill was closely looked at this blog October-November 2008.  Some excerpts with comments in bold type between the lines below:

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O'Neill's 2008 Record:
793 starts 110 wins 123 place 117 show
2008 win percentage: 14%
2008 win,place, show percentage: 44%
2008 national ranking in terms of number of wins: 29th just ahead of William I. Mott

Pretty good you're thinking. Here's Thor's Echo winning the 2006 B.C. Sprint. "Thor's Echo Injured. Thor's Echo, the champion sprinter of 2006 will not start in this months (2007) BC sprint because of a splint bone injury, trainer Doug O'Neill said..."

In former days it was a small miracle when any O'Neill horses actually make it to the big race.  Casualty list:  Azul Leon etc.etc. etc. and, ooops, more 2008 O'Neill stats:

89 of the top 100 2008 trainers have a better win/place/show % than Doug O'Neill, i.e. there are only 11 rated worse than O'Neill's 44%. The little red flags start to wave.

332 O'Neill trainees for 2008. They have had 793 starts. 2.38 starts per horse. .331 wins per horse(yes, that's point 3).
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If u're a major trainer managing "2.38 starts per horse" before permanent injury retirement--good grief-- how do you ever get any clients?  For the average horse in their stable they got 1/3 of a win per horse for perspective as to how bad it was in O'Neill's 2008 barn.

Now this same trainer has his hands on a TC candidate.Given his 2008 injury rate of permanently injuring 50% of the the horses in his stable every 3 months (based on my 2008 exam with disclaimers) , what is going through this fellow's mind regarding I'll Have Another?  It's normally ok to send a horse out there for a 2m gallop with a couple furlongs in :14s.  When u've done that 4 days in a row with the horse--given ur injury record--what's going through your mind.  Interesting dynamic, hence the 8 ball analogy. More next post..

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