Friday, May 18, 2012

Two Horse Race?

In the "picture worth a thousand words" category, I know it's the wash rack, does this horse look a tad worn?  And, yes, they better be icing those front legs.  Early on I decided to avoid predicting injury in races primarily to avoid becoming Dr. Doom,  since there's reason almost every time to pick one, and heaven forbid if it happens.
I make an exception here and there as I did with the obvious idiocy with 8Belles.  Those people had to be called out.  In this case the Q is whether you can do 1-2 miles (per Pressey comment last post) in :14s every day and survive.  My one rat experience with Groovin' Wind as an early three year old when my horse was flashing a little Derby talent was that you're unable, and yes, in those days Wind spent 20 min exactly in the ice tub after every one of his track runaways.  A hot spot developed on his shin, developing saucer fracture, and we stopped. I'll Have Another has a couple of hot spots.  Wild guess.

If IHA survives the trip, and let's pray he does for this high injury rate trainer, who wins the race? I lack any time to handicap,and so, this will be one of those walk into the pavilion, look at the TV monitor, check the odds,look at the available video and go on what shows on the spur of the moment..

What a no-brainer tri-fecta sort of race (disclaimer again--at a glance).  IHA,Bodemeister and Creative Cause.  There's Graham Motion again except that trainer wins only when he get's lucky, which means racing against inferior to these.

Successful instinct bets on the training.  Baffert, to my knowledge, has  declined any speed work.  Can a horse repeat Bode's Derby performance off of two weeks of slow gallops.  Easy answer:  No.  And, there's also the Q, if Bode goes slower does he necessarily have the conditioning to take off at the 3/8 and leave the others behind as the fastest horse in the race as all the experts seem to be assuming?

A couple of thoughts.  Bode is fast, but that hardly makes him the fastest.  IHA looks more like a Flower Alley than an Arch. However, take it from here.  Arches can fly.  I'd have to think Bode fades again off the training, and at the wire it will be Creative Cause (who in the one photo I saw) has a bloom,and IHA, if the latter has anything left.  Certainly the horse in the stretch that will still have his air will be my pick, possible jock experience q,  IHA.

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to Post Comments [Atom]

<< Home