The 2014 Derby Throwouts

PPs are out.  Unlike recent past days of the '90s or early 2000s'--all horses show decent, consistent works and races going way back into their late 2 yr. old year.  All give impressive performances and appearance on the track.  How to separate?  Surely blogger's superior knowledge and experience can ferret this out (despite blog's dismal prediction record--but, hey....we've been good here at identifying those without any chance--another stab here although more difficult this year.)

Tapiture:  horse has one soft :50 work in 12 days. No way he's tight enough to be competitive, and that's aside from fact that Asmussen is somehow permitted to train here by KHRC.

Commanding Curve--somewhere within this blog is phrase "Dallas Stewart can't train".  They never change their stripes even if this colt shows nice set of works.

Ride On Curlin--sticking my neck out a bit in observing this horse, despite nice breeding, physically seems a cut below to me. ROC also has proven fairly conclusively in his PPs that he's unable to compete stride for stride with the best.  Expect ROC to get shoveled way back by the end.  Note to trainer--doing 7f pre race is good.  Doing 7f in 1:29 as first and only work since 4/12--otherwise.

Wicked Strong--will expect him to be coming.  My faith in Jimmie Jerkens is close to zero.  I know.  Alan Jerkens type works.  Can anyone this fat and out of shape know squat about athletics?  Doubtful imvho.  Something in the handling and training will stop this one way short of the win.

Vicar's In Trouble/Harry's Holiday/General A Rod:  What do these have in common?  Clueless trainer judging from his interviews.  Nice set of works, as every horse in the field does.  So, it's something else about the trainer that will doom these against better trainers.

Samraat:  I like the recent stand trainer Richard Violette took re the JC. More that know what they're doing need speak out in similar fashion.  Unfortunately trainer Violette continues to breeze his 8 days out.  Too long out to compete.  The old east coast training fail. (Edit 5/2: S is officially removed from the throwout list and onto serious contender list. See 5/2 post).

We Miss Artie--I'm taking Plecher at his word on this one.  One more that has to go for this race to make sense.

Vinceremos--looks like decent Plecher horse.  How far in Derby History do we have to go back to see one that stopped in his last prior race come back to win Derby?  Never happened?  Ok.

Wild Cat Red--horse I liked--and yet, looking at him, seems to be going backwards instead of forwards.  A hunch.




11 pretenders out of there.  That leave 7 legits to try to catch CA Chrome.
Our Training:
Lousy weather reaching new lows around here.  We've been able to keep up our riderless work.
Latest:
4/28:  disappointing 5 x 2f effort.
4/29  Heavy rain and rest.
4/30:  Wow workout this time on only a day's rest.  5 x 2f mostly in :12s and :13s.