Friday, October 26, 2007

The Breeder's Cup

My favorite tape has been the first 10 Breeder's Cup races. Such good stuff! Pat Day on Wild Again. Gate Dancer and Jack Van Berg. Smile twice, who I bred to. Alysheba and Ferdinand, then Alysheba again. Manilla, Kotashaan. Easy Goer and Sunday Silence. While I still had my tape machine I'd play them over and over. For me, Alysheba, Waquoit, Blushing John, Slew City Slew, Forty Niner and Personal Flag in 1988 under the lights at Churchill was always just a slight cut above.

The Breeder's Cup serves so well as racing's show case event, and still too few people watch. Promoting racing as it's done leaves so much to be desired. I've never understood why the powers that be fail to promote the gambling side of racing. That's what the Casino's do, and I'd guess without knowing that extensive advertising of large pick six pots of the type that Terry Wallace used to generate every weekend at Ak-Sar-Ben would bring 'em to the track.

The other thing racing needs to do is get owners instead of losing them, and that seems so easy to me. Several things can be done. First, give those that put all their money, time and effort into the sport--the owners--in control at the race track. Assign stalls to owners, let owners instead of trainers decide how, why, when their horses race and train and remove those vultures who injure everything they get a hold of from control of the sport. The present trainer-owner relationship drives away even the richest of them eventually as, like Eugene Klein, they figure out the ponzi scheme. Make trainers employees. Put owners in charge. Things would change.

My picks for the Cup. RR hesitates to make selections this year since I've failed to follow the training. Strictly on intuitiveness and instinct, than any handicapping or recently following the horses, here's what I'm thinking about the Classic, which would be the only race where I'd have a clue:

The wet track will handicap the come from behinders, and so throw out Tiago who'll be carrying 25 lbs of water and mud down the stretch. Where does that leave Street Sense? He better be up near the front to avoid the same fate, and, since I consider that SS has the best trainer, and I'm always angling for the best training, would I thus pick SS?

Two problems with SS, who is a nice horse. Though Nafzger has the horse in the best conditining, Carl Nafzger for all his qualities, is also a fellow that frequently forgets to dot his i's and cross his t's. Nafzger makes training errors that cost big races. The one's that's going to cost SS here, Nafzger has failed to train in speed. In the Classic, of this quality, I'm thinking speed will out.

Any Given Saturday has the nice light hoofs for the track and the sort of body I look for on mud. But, throw out AGS as having insufficient tightness due to lack of racing.

And, I'm hardly enamoured by that final :50+ work of Curlin, who also looked a little to heavy to me in a recent photo. Tough to carry weight 1 1/4 miles particulary in slop. Without a clue as to Curlin's other recent training, but, I'm thinking Asmussen will get out trained here.

Which leaves: Lawyer Ron the four year old man among boys who tends to shorten stride in the stretch of longer races probably due to the sort of soft training he get's in Plecher's barn. This great horse will be leading them imo, but, he'll be craftily dogged by another one with a clean uniform, and, much as I despise picking the fastest horse when he has the worst imo trainer, I'm picking Hard Spun to outfoot Lawyer Ron with a water logged Street Sense in hot pursuit.

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