Tampa Bay Derby Day

Will War Pass today run weakly to his training or flash his amazing natural talent and leave this field?

Despite occasional inexplicable performances I believe in general that horses perform extremely consistently with the way they're trained. Stamina, holding speed over distance, ability to fight off lactic acid build up, running the fractions of the race instead of the training, etc. etc. all flow from what the horse has done prior to the race. This is another way of saying that race performance has only marginally to do with genetics, conformation, all those peripheral things, and almost everything to do with the training. There's talent of course, and natural speed, and so we'll see today whether the training will out or whether we get a performance that will be exception to the rule.

So, without adieu, today's field.

How many furlongs has each horse breezed or raced this year, in order, most to least:

BIG TRUCK: 53 1/16 furlongs
CIGAR MAN: 41 1/16 furlongs
ATONED: 38 furlongs
DYNAMIC WAYNE: 34 1/4 furlongs
WAR PASS: 33 furlongs
GENTLEMAN JAMES: 30 1/16 furlongs
MAKE ME ZACK: 22 furlongs

Is it believable that the KY Derby favorite has run all of 33F for the year?

ATONED shows typical Pletcher training as this horse has breezed 5f every week starting January 21. That's 8 breezes in 52 days, once a week up to the race with all of them in about 1:01--those Plecher riders have consistent clocks. Per my posts by my belief enough for fracture resistance, and on the bare edge of soft tissue soundness. Prediction: 1st race of the year. Competes then fades for lack of training at racing speeds. How can we expect the horse to maintain it's stamina in faster fractions then it ever trains?

BIG TRUCK. Barclay Tagg, one of my favorites, seems inspired this year. Perhaps learned something with so little work for No Biz Like Show Biz. Big Truck has consistent weekly works or races dating back to 1/15, with a :59 3/5 on 3/9. This is more volume and speed than typical conventionals. Based on training as shown in the form, this horse should run a big race. The spacing since 1/1: 5 days, 10 days, 7 days, 6 days,7 days,7 days, 5 days, 10 days,6 days, 6 days and 6 days to today/s race.

The rest of this field show various versions of "pitiful" in their training, though you'd have to qualify that perhaps each horse has done work that fails to show on the form. E.g. Barry Rose and Make Me Zach--could the horse possibly do this little work and still make it all the way around?

CIGAR MAN, he'll be well groomed with his woman trainer. The spacing of the breezes and races starting 1/4--11 days, 11 days, 7 days, 13 days, 12 days. Hardly what we'd call Pletcher training, this is so typically conventional, again imo barely on the edge of certain injury. Comparatively with the field at least the woman has done slightly above minimum. The horse has a chance to compete.

GENTLEMAN JAMES, another female trainer, has 5 works and races this year with two of these since March 1, lol--3f on 3/1 and 5f in 1:05 on 3/9 This horse has an idiot for a trainer and sadly his destination is up the track with high probability of certain injury. Spacing since 1/1 is 19 days, 18 days, 10 days, 12 days, 7 days then 6 days to today's race.

MAKE ME ZACH shows zero works or races since 2/24 That's 20 days without working since winning a 6f race in 1:10 2/5 on 2/24 by 6 lengths. The horse has 2 races and 3 three f works for the year. This trainer should be shot. I'd be happy to pull the trigger. Spacing since 1/1 17 days, 5 days, 11 days, 22 days, then 20 days to today's race--1 work 1 race in last 42 days.

DYNAMIC WAYNE has six works and races for the year so already we can say, woefully insufficient. The horse shows a mix of 4f and 5f breezes with two 1 1/16 mile races. Spacing since 1/1 is 13 days, 7 days, 5 days, 16 days, 6 days, 22 days and 6 days to today's race. Might there has been an injury in the 22 day gap, but still typical conventional. Horse at risk.

RR prediction: Big Truck will severely test War Pass, and I've already chopped up the crow, it's in the broiler and ready for consumption.

Training:
3/14/08:
Art: 3 x3f riderless snappy. 3 x 2f riderless with 1/2f at near max speed.
Rod: 3x 3f riderless snappy
3/15: Off for both. Snow this morning.