Contenders And Pretenders

How many horses enter the Derby never to be heard from again? In my years its been most of them, though it's changed a bit recently. More horses the last three or four years actually survive the Derby as the training has stiffened. Last post identified which horses based on works and races have perhaps the best bottom for the year, though it's interesting that almost all of them have done at six or seven breezes/races since about mid-March. Some catch up in training going on, perhaps.

But, we throw out the softest one's right off the bat. This includes

work/races for the year//since about 3/15

13/5 Gayego
13/6 Momba
13/6 Z Humor
14/6 Court Vision
14/6 Dennis of Cork

I'm confident the Derby distance will be too much for the above based merely on a crude look at their training. And, though I always fear Pletcher, very little dissuaded me in witnessing those highly questionable works at Keenland Saturday by Momba and Cowboy Cal.(See Keenland Website) Where were the jocks for this top barn in the final Derby works. That rider on Momba reminded me of Nob. Well, that's probably a gross exaggeration. Nob in his finest moment possibly. And, I'd swear Cowboy Cal was trotting a bit gingerly post work. In any event neither of those works imo were sufficiently strenous to retain top fitness for the 7 whole days to May 3, and certainly as Pletcher admitted, best you could say, they were maintenance works, sort of, imo. Both horses looked neither primed for max effort or tight to me.

Mott, bless his heart. Time has simply passed him by. He's still competing with Lukas of the mid-nineties, and I'll be amazed if his horses do anything. Dennis of Cork--too lightly raced and worked to be a factor.

Now, does total furlongs worked/raced for the year add anything to the equation? Here they are:

Number of Furlongs/horse
101 Smooth Air--interesting!
96 Pyro--Assmussen seems to work and gallop a lot, but light. Watching as it goes!
94 Big Truck--but, less and less lately.
90 Z Fortune--the other Asmussen horse.
88 Colonel John
82 Bob Black Jack
81 Tale of Ekati
81 Behind At The Bar--The most conditioned of Pletcher's.
80 Anak Nakal--had only War Pass trained this much.
79 Dennis of Cork
74 Gayego--if you're training a sprinter, do you want to do more than this?
74 Visionaire
71 Recapturetheglory
69 Adriano--a lot lately. He looks good. Is this enough?
64 Cool Coal Man
64 Court Vision
63 Monba
57 Cowboy Cal
56 Big Brown--Again brings up the rear.
52 Eight Belles--does she belong here? Danger!

Analysis: Can we say a true contender needs to have worked/raced more than 80 F for the year?
We'll see.

Smooth Air sticks out. I'll have to look at him closer as to recent spacing. Adriano seems borderline, and in this field I'll throw him out, with trepidation though. I dislike disregarding talent. Cool Coal and Anak Nakal are out, but we already knew that. And, with all regard to Big Truck's early works, that horse failed to look the part in the Keenland video of his last breeze, so, on my board Truck is out.

This leaves standing for further analysis in order of what I see at present:
Colonel John, Pyro (I think they held him back at Keenland), Big Brown, Bob Black Jack (I'm impressed with the trainer to date), Z Fortune,Tale of Ekati (expect a No Biz performance), Smooth Air, Behindatthebar, Recapturetheglory, and Visionaire hangs by the teeth. Nine horses as true contenders. A look at recent spacing next.

Training:
Both of mine did light riderless work after the faster work yesterday, plus 10 min tack work in the pasture with Art. Healing from the 4/25 gelding: unexpectedly quick recovery. The horse acts as if he's hardly in pain.