Who'll Win The Derby?

Recapture The Glory above in his first Churchill gallop for 2 miles. Interesting because of the distance, weight on top(Roussell's assistant trainer), and because the horse looks to be more flying than galloping in the photo. Do we hold it against RTG because the track for the Illinois Derby favored inside speed where hilariously the order of finish came in precisely in order of distance from the rail? If you believe your eyes this is looking like a very good and well trained colt.

What a nice You Tube video of Colonel John breezing this morning. And, Prado will ride Adriano instead of Monba. Do you pick up by watching that last race at Turfway that Adriano is a really good horse?

Can we pick a Derby winner? We have these days almost too much information, if that's possible, though I'd like to know each and every move these colts make to the Derby. We can pick the contenders now, but, you separate them by what they do in the next three weeks?

Steve Haskin has his usual well written series in the Blood Horse with less swiss cheese analysis than in days of old. Haskin seems more prescient these days. And, give him credit. He pulled Barbaro out of the hat at the last minute, and believe he chose Street Sense a year ago.
Here are Haskin's latest top 5:
1. Monba
2. Big Brown
3. Colonel John
4. Smooth Air
5. Visionaire

Whoops! Did I write "give Haskin's credit"? How did he pick Monba of all horses, and Smooth Air and Visionaire? With Haskin I'd say pedigree, trainer, sales price, good karma, blind luck, all in combo with an occasional look at training. Training apparently is what put Smooth Air on Haskin's list since Bennie Stutts after 60+ years I'm supposing has finally learned how to train.

For myself, the question would be do we pick a horse of Todd Pletcher ilk that will get "minimal training" up to the Derby (last post), or do we look at Colonel John and Eion Harty who says that horse will continue to breeze every 6 days? I've said it before on the blog, and here it is again--the harder trainers will out, and the horses you'll see in the stretch on May 3 will be those with a consistent and appropriate series of works from now to Derby day.

For the present three colts seem to exceed the rest in talent: Big Brown, Colonel John, and War Pass if he's healthy (big if). Below that group we have a bunch of really good colts hard to separate and some outstanding training jobs apparently in progress with Smooth Air, Bob Black Jack, Gayego, Colonel John, and I'd expect Adriano and Recapture the Glory. Yet, what are the odds that Big Brown's the next great horse.? Will be interesting how Dutrow trains to the Derby.

Training: Hard to get a break from the weather as last night we transitioned to 30 mph wind gusts and a lost front shoe on Art. Tacked the shoe back on and did riderless play work in the paddock for 10 min. with Art carrying the 40 lbs Astride Saddle. In the wind my rider refused to get up. Lol.