Blue Grass Post Mortem

Pletcher at work. More tongue hanging out stuff to irritate me. Would a real trainer send his horse to the track with it's tongue flapping?

Ok. Pletcher finishes 1-2 in the Blue Grass following my post that Big Truck and Pyro would leave the field. After these latter two, shall we say, finished up the track, some RR rehabilitation is in order.

I've looked at the boiling crow, but left it in the pot. You read it here after all, 4/10/08: "Monba: This talented colt is going to get beat by Pletcher's soft training. A shame. Though I'd be other than shocked if Monba runs away with the race. Happens in Pletcher's barn and I've yet to figure it."

I'll post on Pletcher training and how this win was got tomorrow, but first, based on training, how could this result have occurred? Or, should we consider training at all in trying to handicap races?

I'd like to go a few days pre-race when we started reading that this or that horse already had enough earnings to get in the Derby. The implication started to develop that Asmussen and others merely wanted to get to the Derby instead of win the Blue Grass.

Personally I'm unable to imagine a trainer being that stupid. Does "declining to compete" in a $750,000 race mean that they've complete contempt for their peers believing they can baby a horse into a Derby win. Or, perhaps the competitive aspect of the TC trail has degraded to the point where the dynamics of training youngsters at the upper level involves manipulation of value of the horse instead of competitive horse racing?

Unknown what the thinking is, but, the performances of Pyro and Big Truck yesterday indicated that the reporters may have been on to something, and I had noticed this in the pre-race B. Tagg interview were Tagg was moaning about the 7 week gap for BT to the Derby, that he wanted a race, but was fretting over the 3 weeks (only) to the Derby.

If you watch the race, Pyro's jock quite obviously makes zero effort to get his horse into a competitive position vis a vis the field, and gives couple of perfunctory whip taps in the stretch that would qualify as just enough effort to prevent a steward's inquiry. I am about 90% certain that Pyro's jock was under instructions to avoid a hard run.

Big Truck does make a bit of a run into the final turn, and his performance is more in doubt. Is this another B. Tagg Elysium Fields result, or was BT's jock also under instructions to go easy? My take on BT's inexplicable performance: the horse was hurt or the jock was instructed to go easy.

And so, that Pletcher beat the rest of the soft trainers in the field besides Asmussen and Tagg hardly surprises. I noticed the Monba possibility after seeing the video of Monba breezing last week at Keenland. It showed a beautifully conformed KY Derby type horse that was sitting on a big race.

Nevertheless I'm unwilling to eat the crow where more than likely the trainers of my picks refused to compete. But, we also have the interesting and continuing question, how's Pletcher do it. A little more speculation on this, and the Arkansas Derby, next post.

Training: Winter has returned this week to KC. Declined to train yesterday in miserable and wet conditions.