Friday, April 11, 2008

More Toyota Bluegrass

Is this one priceless? This post will be muted as this morning I've received some family news that is anything other than good. But, I'm very glad La Penta is so into his ownership. Where else besides horse racing can comparative little guys own professional sports franchises? And, I'd say La Penta has held up pretty well over a week where he got 1.5 hours of sleep.

Wishing La Penta well differs markedly from the substantive part of my reaction to La Pent's confidence where I'm more into the "when will they ever learn" mode.

A little more training stuff for this field, and then I'll exit for the day. My last post you would have noted the gap (gulf) that separates Big Truck and Pyro from the rest of the field, and that Cool Coal Man sits at the bottom of the field in terms of works that show, never mind that Zito of late has been professing coming down the lane "one more time" before the race.

I noted last breeze that on closer exam of the works you'll also see the difference between the harder and softer trainers in the way they handle everything else about their horses. Note:

Which horses breezed the ideal 4-5 days out from the race:

Last Breeze How Many Days Out:

4 Big Truck
5 Pyro, Medjool, Stone Bird
6 Monba, Kentucky Bear, Cowboy Cal, Stevil
7 Visionaire and Miner's Claim
21 Halo Najib

Yes, for Halo Najib 21 days since any clocked works. What are they thinking? Somebody please tell me.

Another training measurement: How many furlongs for the year have these horses breezed? Again you'll see a definite bell curve placement below between the soft non-trainers and the harder trainers:

Furlongs Breeze/Raced in 2008:
76 Pyro
72 Stone Bird--DW Lukas has been working the heck out of this horse lately. Will it make
a difference?
71 Big Truck
65 Medjool
64 Kentuky Bear
58 Visionaire
58 Halo Najib--but this includes 4 races which might be a factor.
57 Stevil
54 Cool Coal Man
53 Monba--great horse, very questionable prep, it seems.
52 Miner's Claim
49 Cowboy Cal

What sticks out with this field: the separation in terms of volume of speed training between Big Truck and Pyro, and the rest, and just quite a bit sharper handling for Truck and Pyro(based on what shows in the Form). There are some talented horses here and there's a lot more to handicapping a race than the training, but, it will be interesting to see whether, as I'd think, that Big Truck and Pyro will leave this group. Which of these two will win? I weigh Big Truck's greater natural talent (Pyro seems other than a great specimen) with Tagg's proclivity for errors, but, I'm thinking the horse will overcome his trainers little foibles, and so for now predict Big Truck in the Blue Grass with the crow broiling in the pot should he be needed post race.

Training: Under water 4/10, we'll recommence tonight.

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