Handicapping the TC

The human at left is handicapper Doug Arnold, and I just finished reading his "picks" for the weekend on his NTRA blog. Missed 'em all, leaving us the perennial question, how can these experts be so wrong? Jeff Siegel and Lafite Pincay Jr. picked the up the track El Gato Malo, most of them chose War Pass and Dennis of Cork. None, to my knowledge, even considered Recapture the Glory.

We look back, of course, and project the past to the future frequently ignorning what's currently happening right before our eyes. And, even though I may think expert handicappers immune to such illusions, how can I fault them since I've done much the same too many times to count.

The central problem for the handicappers and sports prognosticators in general is that they ignore training, dismiss what's happening with each horse in their shedrow, and generally project instead based on statistics and past performances. Had they only read the blog, lol. One more time, so all understand, soft trainers such as Craig Dollase, Nick Zito, and Bill Mott are unable to compete against the current crop of harder trainers in the mode of Asmussen, Carl Nafzger and of late, Barclay Tagg and the upcoming Mr. Harty. You might throw Dutrow in there, though I'm still evaluating that one.

We can leave it to the law courts and the preachers to instruct us on the morals of the some of these sorts. I'm supposing that a crook can train a horse, provided they know what they're doing. Whereas it's highly arguable that the current versions of Zito, Mott, and Dollase have a clue.

Sure, anybody can take a talented animal such as War Pass, send 'em around and you'll see a breathtaking performance. But, do you start to feel sorry for the horse as he rounds the 4f pole at the head of the final turn understanding that in his entire life he's never been worked beyond that distance? (Slight exaggeration. WP shows 2 works--1 this year-- at 5f, rest at 4f.)

I've laid some of this out so far in the blog. You may look at the posts of ___ and ___and see that both Colonel John and Tale of Ekati show the most, the best, and best timed and conceived workouts prior to these races. In Illinois, most of those horses were trained similarly, but, to the Doug Arnolds, how can you overlook a Cherokee Run colt out of a Dehere mare with the nice works shown running his second of the year, and though he last breezed nine days out, is there any doubt Roussel, unlike Zito, gave RTG appropriate non-work training up the race. The evidence of the latter was in the run where Roussel's colt, unlike the ridiculously trained War Pass, was strong to the wire.

But, we're glad for the Doug Arnolds, and we appreciate that the Zitos are viewed Hall of Famers. Keeps the sport interesting for us little people!

Training:
Nicer 10 min riderless romp for Art and Rod. Little Rod, unlike his sour attitude (for his training) of earlier in the week, after the little rest is showing no pain. Trotting tackwork with Art, and belly with Rod. Nob the rider says that Art was limping a bit from his chest wound under tack, and sure enough this morning the swelling had blown up again. Though I'll have to give it more time, I'm glad for the two days gallop time so we avoid losing too much in the layoff.