Triple Crown Day
With the scratch of Casino Drive I removed the question mark after the title. More on CD vs. BB tomorrow.
If I handicapped the race I might turn up some overlooked angles, but glancing at the PPs it seems fairly safe to predict, barring some injury, that vis a vis this field expect Big Brown in another zip code at the wire.
Did any of these horse besides CD prepare for 1.5 miles? Due to spotty reporting, unknown what happened under the radar in the training. But, strictly from the PPs the most common method of training has been one or two 4 or 5f works since the middle of May in :12s and probably off day 1.5 mile galloping. What are these trainers thinking in terms of preparing for the 1.5 mile Belmont. Who knows?
We may further assume, besides their breezing, on non-breeze days this field barely gallops 1.5 miles, much less race that distance. Thusly, it would be a rather huge shock to my weak heart to see anything other than an entire field, somewhere between the quarter pole and eight pole (and several way before that--see Zito and Macho Again), lock up in either their breathing or from lactic acid build up. If we believe the training the field should be crossing the wire in :14s.
This locking up should happen also to Big Brown but to a lesser degree. BB's prep since the Derby has been about as pitiful as the rest and was hardly helped by the hoof problems. However, the most talented horse ever, as I've branded BB, did breeze last in ideal sequence to the race (unlike the remainder of the field), and will in the race need to "work" less to cover the same ground as the rest. Stride efficiency, stride length an obvious breathing ability should give BB an insurmountable advantage given the training of the field.
Thus, the obvious strategy for Kent Desormeoux would be to lay off the leaders with BB easily galloping along and then take off when the harder working field most assuredly will commence to tie up around the quarter pole.
I think BB himself will be struggling by the 1/8s, but by them believe he'll have them wired.
Will one or two horses be coming on? Only Tale of Ekati and Dennis of Cork have the slightest chance of this. I'd think if TOE has been on the track since his last breeze we'd have heard some report. Since I think B. Tagg has kept TOE in his stall this week, I'm unable to imagine any stamina at speed down the stretch for this horse.
Dennis is a slightly different matter. The video shows this horse to be extremely fit and muscular. Maybe there's more to that training that the PPs show. Guessing--I documented prior to the Derby David Carroll being a lost in the clouds Shug McGhaughey type trainer. I doubt he's changed his stripes, and believe the more likely scenario to be that Dennis is in superb condition to run a mile. Believe that's about what will happen. (Edit: Ed De Rosa video says Dennis had monster training in the mornings in KY, hmmmn, and now a report Dennis may scratch 4:12 p.m.).
We'll hope they all get around there and enjoy the race!
Training:
Fri 6/6: after yesterday's off day both went riderless after 4f warm up: 6 x 3f mostly play and since they were enthusiastic it was snappy in muddy conditions. Art then trotted under tack on very soft grass (unable to gallop due to conditions) .8 mile. Rod walked under tack, sort of, 3-4 min. Rod in his 4th day of true tack work decided he'd rather stand then walk. Nob went along with the program. To avoid fear at this stage we like to assure the horse that he's in control. We might be trotting with Rod in a week.
If I handicapped the race I might turn up some overlooked angles, but glancing at the PPs it seems fairly safe to predict, barring some injury, that vis a vis this field expect Big Brown in another zip code at the wire.
Did any of these horse besides CD prepare for 1.5 miles? Due to spotty reporting, unknown what happened under the radar in the training. But, strictly from the PPs the most common method of training has been one or two 4 or 5f works since the middle of May in :12s and probably off day 1.5 mile galloping. What are these trainers thinking in terms of preparing for the 1.5 mile Belmont. Who knows?
We may further assume, besides their breezing, on non-breeze days this field barely gallops 1.5 miles, much less race that distance. Thusly, it would be a rather huge shock to my weak heart to see anything other than an entire field, somewhere between the quarter pole and eight pole (and several way before that--see Zito and Macho Again), lock up in either their breathing or from lactic acid build up. If we believe the training the field should be crossing the wire in :14s.
This locking up should happen also to Big Brown but to a lesser degree. BB's prep since the Derby has been about as pitiful as the rest and was hardly helped by the hoof problems. However, the most talented horse ever, as I've branded BB, did breeze last in ideal sequence to the race (unlike the remainder of the field), and will in the race need to "work" less to cover the same ground as the rest. Stride efficiency, stride length an obvious breathing ability should give BB an insurmountable advantage given the training of the field.
Thus, the obvious strategy for Kent Desormeoux would be to lay off the leaders with BB easily galloping along and then take off when the harder working field most assuredly will commence to tie up around the quarter pole.
I think BB himself will be struggling by the 1/8s, but by them believe he'll have them wired.
Will one or two horses be coming on? Only Tale of Ekati and Dennis of Cork have the slightest chance of this. I'd think if TOE has been on the track since his last breeze we'd have heard some report. Since I think B. Tagg has kept TOE in his stall this week, I'm unable to imagine any stamina at speed down the stretch for this horse.
Dennis is a slightly different matter. The video shows this horse to be extremely fit and muscular. Maybe there's more to that training that the PPs show. Guessing--I documented prior to the Derby David Carroll being a lost in the clouds Shug McGhaughey type trainer. I doubt he's changed his stripes, and believe the more likely scenario to be that Dennis is in superb condition to run a mile. Believe that's about what will happen. (Edit: Ed De Rosa video says Dennis had monster training in the mornings in KY, hmmmn, and now a report Dennis may scratch 4:12 p.m.).
We'll hope they all get around there and enjoy the race!
Training:
Fri 6/6: after yesterday's off day both went riderless after 4f warm up: 6 x 3f mostly play and since they were enthusiastic it was snappy in muddy conditions. Art then trotted under tack on very soft grass (unable to gallop due to conditions) .8 mile. Rod walked under tack, sort of, 3-4 min. Rod in his 4th day of true tack work decided he'd rather stand then walk. Nob went along with the program. To avoid fear at this stage we like to assure the horse that he's in control. We might be trotting with Rod in a week.
posted by rather rapid at
10:49 AM
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