Wednesday, December 24, 2008

Make It Come True

Hennig trainee Make It Come True survived the year. MICT proves well named. I picked him at random out of the Hennig sample(last post) from the survivors, and he's the first one out of the hat.

MICT is a claiming turf horse racing on the east coast at various tracks with the superior line of 9-1-2-2 for the year, and significantly never out of the money for the year. This is the sort of performance from my perspective is always satisfying--forget the wins, they'll come and keep 'em racing and in the money. (Note--I failed in typing this to notice the 6th place finish on 8/28.)

What does Hennig do with MICT in terms of breeze/race frequency?

1/6 RACE finises 2d. Hennig's website fails to show distance or purse.
1/17 :50.8. 11 days (less time than we've been seeing.)
1/26 :49.2 9 days
2/2 :50.8 7 days
2/9 :50.8 7 days
2/16 :50.6 7 days
3/1 :50.4 13 days forgot about the horse possibly. or weather, transport. who knows.
3/9 :49.6 8 days
4/10 :50.4 32 days. Injury? What's going on?
4/18 RACE finishes 3rd. Races after one :50.4 work in 32 days.
How long do they wait?
5/7 RACE finishes 5th. Zero breezing in 19 days.
How long do they wait?
5/24 :50.2 14 days
5/31 :37.8 7 days
6/7 :49.8 7 days
6/13 RACE 6 days, finishes 4th
How long do they wait?
6/26 :49.6 13 days
7/3 :50.2 7 days
7/11 RACE 8 days, wins. Note the horse (5/24 to 7/11 has 7 speedworks or 1 every 7 days.
They wait?
8/2 :50 21 days.
8/13: :49.6. 11 days. Why 11 days, we ask Suddenly in 32 days the horse has but 3 fast works.
8/28 RACE 15 days. Is the pattern rational? Horse finishes 6th.
9/16 :51. 19 days. The riders are on strike, perhaps.
9/23 :51.6 back to 7 days.
10/3 : 49 spoke to soon--10 days.
10/11 RACE 8 days, finshes 3rd.
10/31 1:01.6 20 days and they do this in :12.25s
11/7: RACE 7 days finishes 2nd.
11/23: :50.6 16 days.
12/3 :49 10 days
12/12 RACE 9 days finishes 5th.

Analysis: The racing pattern above is fairly consistent being about once a month and never more than once a month. I'll add that this racing pattern seems to be what Hennig does. I only in extreme rarity saw any horse racing more than once a month and they all tried to race once a month till injury. MICT averages for the year 2.73 breeze/race per month, but again, we have the pattern of primarily giving two weeks off from speed work after a race. Nevertheless 2.73 is among the lowest we've seen.

Speculation: Were I paying $100/day for MICT think I'd be furious. But, that's me. The largely irrational pattern of the spacing of this horse's fast work bespeaks more of handling by some barn foreman/ jr. h.s. graduate type, than Hennig himself. They basically take the horse's ability to perform away from him by their inconsistency. Caveat that this is based only upon what we see on the website.

Significantly MICT survives.

Training: might be back at it today. We'll see.
Later: Travel postponed to next week. 12/24 Tack work at 20 degrees. Rod walks 3/4 mile in the snow. Art trots a mile.

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to Post Comments [Atom]

<< Home